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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PHG who wrote (4083)	1/11/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: Al Gutkin	Respond to of 10227

PHG: Ed's analysis can be right both up or down, here's how. Ed's analysis comes from the art of using probability and statistics, the format is called Elliot wave analysis. Lets consider the statements that Ed. stuck himself out to make. He said top probably 29.5 this trip up, if it goes up. He said possible bottom could go below 22, should it go down. This is not a hard and fast rule because it can have many tests of a bottom, it's just in Eds experience that four times down it goes through. He said timing for a move would be approx. 18 days. Ed did not say it would go either way, so suppose this. Monday the news reports that Indonesia (spelling) squandered the money promised to them and will give the rest to government officials. The market takes another dump and Nextel goes with it. If Nextel hits hard at 22 again, it could go through. On the other hand, if the news reports that Indonesia would cooperate with IMF rules, use the money loaned for the right purposes, properly account for it, the market may take a big bounce up. If it does, the prediction is, Nextel will only top at 29.5 this time up. Any event can cause the ups and downs it doesn't matter to the wave analysis, cause emotion, or world events do not come into play. Statistics come into play, how many shares transferred and at what level. Think of it like this, if we test the blades that Sikorski manufactures by checking closely the next 100 that comes off the line and find that two are defective, we can say that Sikorski blades have a 98% chance of not being defective. If company management says that 98% good, is acceptable and they can accept a failure rate of 2%, then the production continues without change. PHG, that is all that the Elliot wave analysis program does. Ed takes the statistical result, which is not nearly as positive as checking the blades, and Ed. adds his experience to the prediction. I don't trust the inspectors at Sikorski, so I'll take Ed's prediction as being close to accurate as anyone can be. Regards from inaccurate Al the inspctor's pal