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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HeyRainier who wrote (180)	1/11/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: jan_mike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1720

Shorting RADAF - I hesitated to interrupt, but short RADAF with care. I am looking for good candidates to get pounded myself, but as a Radica long, I have watched the new products and contracts come flying. The TA probably shows a few bucks to be had while it drifts down, but the price is based on solid numbers with serious growth still ahead. I'll probably write in the money covered calls expecting general market malaise coming up. I also have enough profit to take that risk with impunity. So many stocks running on vapor seem almost like locks in a downturning market, I was suprised to see RADAF on anybody's list. Best of luck to all, Mike

To: HeyRainier who wrote (180)	1/11/1998 10:48:00 PM
From: ftth	Respond to of 1720

[RADAF] I also like to see a rally after such big selloff before shorting. It happens so frequently that it's hard to justify a short until it does in most cases. But it sure couldn't drum up any demand at the new "bargain" price. Volume was nonexistent on days 3-5 after the supply surge, range was relatively narrow, and it finished in the bottom of the range on 4 out of 5 of these critical days immediately following a large selloff. 3 consecutive days it tried to pierce 16 and the bears pushed it back. The middle (higher volume) day appears to be dominated by short covering (if I had shorted during the plunge, I think that would have been the first point where I felt squeezed). It almost looks like the bulls threw in the towel after that, as supply pressure has dominated since. It looks as though any previous demand at a higher price than its current level (from about thanksgiving to its peak) has been more than nullified by the immense supply hitting the market since 12/11. This may be one of those half position now, double it if rallys to 17 1/2, ride the half position if it doesn't rally cases. New high is pretty well out of the question I would say, but then again, look what the mm's were able to do from 12/16 close to 12/17 open. That's a pretty questionable move when you think about what would have to transpire to create those 2 candles. Hmmm....too "unreliable" to chance it I think. Looks like mm's could squeeze 'ya out very easily even if it does happen to rally back up to 18. I think I talked myself out of this one. Looks like the house has a clear edge. dh