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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78683)	1/24/2018 2:04:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	3 Recommendations Recommended By oldbeachlvr Return to Sender Sam Respond to of 95567

It is all about TXN today for the SOX falloff, at the moment down about -31 points(-2.3%) Texas Instruments's weak Q1 forecast, in-line Q4 result moves stock off all-time highs 11:21 AM ET 1/24/18 \| Briefing.com After breaking all-time highs yesterday ahead of the report, shares of Texas Instruments ( TXN 113.05, -6.84) decline 5.7% as an underwhelming Q4 report and Q1 guidance puts a damper on the stock. The semiconductor bellwether saw revenue growth dip below 10% for the first time in three quarters as demand for its products in the communications equipment sector declined. The company saw a string of two-years of bottom line beats dashed last night when the company reported earnings of $1.09 per share, excluding a $0.75 per share tax charge. In terms of revenues, TXN saw Q4 revenue growth of just 9.8% year-over-year, incidentally its slowest growth since 4Q2016. Areas of strength in the quarter included the core Analog business, which saw 11% growth, and the Embedded Processing business, which grew 20%. As mentioned, TXN saw soft demand in the communications equipment sector, a market which TXN management described as 'traditionally choppy'. Despite this weakness, TXN saw mid-single digit growth in personal electronics in addition to strength in the Automotive and Industrials markets where demand remained strong. Gross margin were up 250 basis points in Q4 to 65.1% reflecting the benefit of 300-millimeter Analog production. Management also pointed to a strong gross margin result due to higher revenues and lower manufacturing costs. On tax, TXN commented that the 4Q2017 tax expense included about $800 million primarily related to the recently passed tax reform act. For 2018, the company told investors to assume a 23% annual operating tax rate before stock-based compensation. The effective tax rate should be about 21% for Q1, 22% in Q2 and Q3, and 23% in Q4 of 2018. Starting in 2019, TXN told investors to assume an annual operating tax rate of 18%, which does not include an estimate for stock-based compensation. Guidance is also looking a bit tough to swallow. TXN guided Q1 earnings per share between $0.98-1.14, excluding an approximate $0.03 per share tax benefit. Investors are scrutinizing the revenue guide as well, where TXN sees about 7% growth at the midpoint of its 2.6-11.4% growth forecast of $3.49-3.79 billion compared to last year's $3.40 billion. Some investors could be looking at this period as justification to head for the exits. An in-line Q4 and a forecast for slowing revenue growth to start out FY2018 can't bode well for TXN's stock, and its peers for that matter, in the near term. The tailwind of lower taxes in the future, however, is reassurance for long term investors that TXN may weather the storm. TXN peers lower today -- CY -2.42%, IDTI -2.02%, XLNX -1.99%, TSM -1.84%, MKSI -1.74%, AMAT -1.68%, LRCX -1.61%, MXIM -1.55%, ASML -1.41%, TER -1.40%, MU -1.32%.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78683)	1/24/2018 2:23:53 PM
From: Kirk ©	3 Recommendations Recommended By Donald Wennerstrom Return to Sender robert b furman Respond to of 95567

Thanks for the great tables! Scary that with such growth for 2017.... will there be any growth in 2018 or 2019? Predictions are yes for 2018, but we know how those go. First as Kirk pointed out, Dec this year was the highest for the year, also the month of Dec has always been green going all the way back to 2009, a period of 9 years. Second as to Bob's question, Jan has been red going back to 2012, a period of 6 years. My guess is anyone on a fiscal budgeting cycle for capital equipment fills out their allotment before they lose it. Old game. At HP we'd have a list of the really nice equipment we wanted to get and if at the end of the FISCAL year we hadn't had our budgets slashed do to slowing sales, we'd order it so we could get an even larger capital equipment budget the next year PLUS get the great, new tools to do our jobs better. Second, Chinese New Year is a shutdown for a week in Asia so billings (accepting equipment) are usually lighter in Jan/Feb. But the table also shows, looking along the bottom line, how cyclical Billings have been over the years. The volatility has been tremendous, just look at many of the wild swings going from year to year. The analysts keep "hammering" Micron for its cyclicality, but Micron's cyclicality is nothing compared to the bottom line of this table. The reason I got into the sector is you don't have to guess what stock to buy... Palm, Apple, IBM, HP, MU, AMD, Intel, etc... or what options to buy for added return... The capital equipment stocks are similar to stock options that don't expire. Get the timing wrong and you just hold for another cycle as anyone with a brain understands this is where the growth will be.... at least it's worked for me since the mid 1990s... -g-

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78683)	1/24/2018 5:00:38 PM
From: Gottfried	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sr K Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95567

bpNDX stays 82% [ALXN added, ULTA dropped] Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24 AABA AABA AABA AAL AAL AAL AABA AAPL AABA AABA AABA AAPL AAPL AAL ADBE AAL AAL AAL ADBE ADBE AABA AAPL ADI AAPL AAPL AAPL ADI ADI AAL ADBE ADP ADBE ADBE ADBE ADP ADP AABA AABA AAPL ADP AKAM ADI ADI ADI AKAM AKAM AAL AAL ADBE AKAM ALGN ADP ADP ADP ALGN ALGN AAPL AAPL ADP ALGN AMAT AKAM AKAM AKAM AMAT ALXN ADBE ADBE AKAM AMAT AMGN ALGN ALGN ALGN AMGN AMAT ADP ADP ALGN AMGN AMZN AMAT AMAT AMAT AMZN AMGN AKAM AKAM AMAT AMZN ATVI AMGN AMGN AMGN ATVI AMZN ALGN ALGN AMGN ATVI BIDU AMZN AMZN AMZN BIDU ATVI AMAT AMAT AMZN BIDU BIIB ATVI ATVI ATVI BIIB BIDU AMGN AMGN ATVI BIIB CA BIDU BIDU BIDU BMRN BIIB AMZN AMZN BIDU CA CELG BIIB BIIB BIIB CA BMRN ATVI ATVI BIIB CELG CERN CA CA CA CELG CA BIDU BIDU CA CERN CHTR CELG CELG CELG CERN CELG BIIB BIIB CELG CHTR CMCSA CERN CERN CERN CHTR CERN CA CA CERN CMCSA CSCO CHTR CHTR CHTR CMCSA CHTR CELG CELG CHTR CSCO CSX CMCSA CMCSA CMCSA COST CMCSA CERN CERN CMCSA CSX CTAS CSCO CSCO COST CSCO COST CHTR CHTR CSCO CTAS CTRP CSX CSX CSCO CSX CSCO CSCO CMCSA CSX CTRP CTSH CTAS CTAS CSX CTAS CSX CSX CSCO CTAS CTXS CTXS CTRP CTRP CTAS CTRP CTAS CTAS CSX CTXS DISCA DISCA CTSH CTSH CTRP CTSH CTRP CTXS CTAS DISCA DLTR DLTR CTXS CTXS CTSH CTXS CTSH DISCA CTXS DLTR EBAY EBAY DISCA DISCA CTXS DISCA CTXS DLTR DISCA EBAY ESRX ESRX DLTR DLTR DISCA DLTR DISCA EBAY DLTR ESRX EXPE EXPE EBAY EBAY DLTR EBAY DLTR ESRX EBAY EXPE FAST FAST ESRX ESRX EBAY ESRX EBAY EXPE ESRX FAST FB FB EXPE EXPE ESRX EXPE ESRX FAST EXPE FB FISV FISV FAST FAST EXPE FAST EXPE FB FAST FISV FOXA FOXA FB FB FAST FB FAST FISV FB FOXA GILD GILD FISV FISV FB FISV FB FOXA FISV GILD GOOGL GOOGL FOXA FOXA FISV FOXA FISV GILD FOXA GOOGL HAS HAS GILD GILD FOXA GILD FOXA GOOGL GILD HAS HSIC HSIC GOOGL GOOGL GILD GOOGL GILD HAS GOOGL HSIC IDXX IDXX HSIC HSIC GOOGL HAS GOOGL HSIC HAS IDXX ILMN ILMN IDXX IDXX HSIC HSIC HAS IDXX HSIC ILMN INTC INTC ILMN ILMN IDXX IDXX HSIC ILMN IDXX INTC INTU INTU INTC INTC ILMN ILMN IDXX INCY ILMN INTU ISRG ISRG INTU INTU INTC INTC ILMN INTC INTC ISRG JBHT JBHT ISRG ISRG INTU INTU INTC INTU INTU JBHT JD JD JBHT JBHT ISRG ISRG INTU ISRG ISRG JD KLAC KLAC JD JD JBHT JBHT ISRG JBHT JBHT KLAC LBTYA LBTYA KLAC KLAC JD JD JBHT JD JD LBTYA LRCX LRCX LBTYA LBTYA KLAC KLAC JD KLAC KLAC LRCX MAR MAR LRCX LRCX LBTYA LBTYA KLAC LBTYA LBTYA MAR MCHP MCHP MAR MAR LRCX LRCX LBTYA LRCX LRCX MCHP MNST MNST MCHP MCHP MAR MAR LRCX MAR MAR MNST MSFT MSFT MNST MNST MCHP MCHP MAR MCHP MCHP MSFT MU MU MSFT MSFT MNST MNST MCHP MNST MNST MU MXIM MXIM MU MU MSFT MSFT MNST MSFT MSFT MXIM MYL MYL MXIM MXIM MU MU MSFT MU MU MYL NCLH NCLH MYL MYL MXIM MXIM MU MXIM MXIM NCLH NFLX NFLX NCLH NCLH MYL MYL MXIM MYL MYL NFLX NVDA NVDA NFLX NFLX NCLH NCLH MYL NFLX NFLX NVDA ORLY ORLY NVDA NVDA NFLX NFLX NCLH NVDA NVDA ORLY PAYX PAYX ORLY ORLY NVDA NVDA NFLX ORLY ORLY PAYX PCAR PCAR PAYX PAYX ORLY ORLY NVDA PAYX PAYX PCAR PYPL PYPL PCAR PCAR PAYX PAYX ORLY PCAR PCAR PYPL QCOM QCOM PYPL PYPL PCAR PCAR PAYX PYPL PYPL QCOM QVCA QVCA QCOM QCOM PYPL PYPL PCAR QCOM QCOM QVCA ROST ROST QVCA QVCA QCOM QCOM PYPL QVCA QVCA ROST SHPG SHPG ROST ROST QVCA QVCA QCOM ROST ROST SHPG SIRI SIRI SHPG SHPG ROST ROST QVCA SHPG SHPG SIRI STX STX SIRI SIRI SHPG SHPG ROST SIRI SIRI STX SWKS SWKS STX STX SIRI SIRI SHPG STX STX SWKS SYMC SYMC SWKS SWKS STX STX SIRI SWKS SWKS SYMC TMUS TMUS TMUS TMUS TMUS TMUS STX SYMC SYMC TMUS TSCO TSCO TSCO TSCO TSCO TSCO TMUS TMUS TMUS TSCO TSLA TSLA TSLA TSLA TSLA TSLA TSCO TSCO TSCO TSLA TXN TXN TXN TXN TXN TXN TSLA TSLA TSLA TXN ULTA ULTA ULTA ULTA ULTA ULTA TXN TXN TXN ULTA VIAB VIAB VIAB VIAB VIAB VIAB VIAB ULTA ULTA VIAB VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VOD VRSK VRSK VRSK VRSK VRSK VRSK VRSK VRSK VRSK VRSK VRTX VRTX VRTX VRTX VRTX VRTX VRTX VRTX VRTX VRTX WBA WBA WBA WBA WBA WBA WBA WBA WBA WBA WDC WDC WDC WDC WDC WDC WDC XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX XLNX