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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jan_mike who wrote (184)	1/11/1998 11:54:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1720

[YHOO]Mike, days like friday can give good clues about how edgey the longs are in a stock that has been holding up better than most in an overall market decline. Its direction out of its little pause was--at least in the short term--in question prior to the longs showing their weak hand friday. Sure it could rally a day or two, but its peak was a true 1-day peak (not a laborious attempt to inch another point or two out of it over a couple weeks). Sentiment changed the next day. There was no bull/bear battle. The next day it was made clear that the 71 level wouldn't hold and the bears took charge. The rally from 60 to 70 was pretty poor quality and looked pretty weak by its third day. I think you could be in a good position here, but I don't know what strike. I tend to avoid the short side while they're still above a rising 50-day. AMZN may dive sooner. There was a pretty clear sign of 50ma-triggered dumping on Friday. But, its been making higher local highs and higher local lows since it dipped from its peak. This is so heavily shorted though, it may just be multiple waves of short squeeze and covering. The short's buy stops move up just above the recent high, and this type of price action will stop many of them out with each successive wave. Note the volume was relatively high with tight ranges on each successive new local high it made in relation to its low on 11/12. If it closes lower tomorrow, and in the bottom of its range, and on good volume, look out below! Just a few random thoughts FWIW. dh