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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (13073)	1/12/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi James, >>GE at 35-40 my God the whole country would shut down. It has been my experience with GE that she takes a 40 to 50 percent haircut in a down market. Generally the last to go and the first to come back. The world did not fall apart before and will not this time either. I use GE as a gauge also. Joan

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (13073)	1/12/1998 5:20:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim, And that's the GOOD news... what's the BAD news if GE fell to 35-40? Bill PS Market may open down 40 or so based on Globex at this time.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (13073)	1/12/1998 10:12:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill; I'm glad you could see I was making a funny; someone actually took me sort of serious, but no harm done. :-) Here is how my TA of the inside of the Friday DJI looks ------------------------------------------------- shares RVOL% Trade+/- CAP_B CAP+/- G/L% MEAN 997725282 0.44% ($6,729,468.33) 62.23 -1.882 -3.15% MEGA 64.70% 0.32% ($11,092,807.81)$124.61 -3.602 -2.88% TAIL 35.30% 0.50% ($4,547,798.59) $31.05 -1.021 -3.28% ---------------------------------- Let me start with what I consider the most meaningfull G/L% on the right, Gain/loss % of market cap and that relates to price as well. The Mega 10 -2.88 the Tail 30 -3.28% The rate of drop on the tail is greater than the rate of drop on the Mega, ( that's the good news as bad as it is) If the Rate was more on the MEGAs ( with as low as we are it would be much worse ) This indicator should signal an up when the +/- signs change and the MEGA goes to + while the TAIL stays -, the more the differance the more the swing. Backtracking had it's limits, as I could not get actual history data for all 30 that included volume etc. Not in a lump anyway unless I wanted to pay out some bucks, but the charts I scaned do confirm the Mega/tail indicator. ------------------------ While CAP +/- shows the MEGAs losing more market cap ( they have more to lose ) the thing is if you had say $100,000 spread in the MEGAs you only lost the 2.88%, were if that were in the tail 30 you lost 3.28%. ------------------------- The other stuff I'l try to explain latter.. it's not so much to indicate any thing as the G/L % is but it shows some intresting facts in a nut shell, about the makeup and moves inside the DOW in percentage terms, between the top 10 and bottom 30, this thing is TA, like an oscillator , and depends on the rate and +/- signs of the G/L% between the MEGAs and the Tail. --------------------------- It's far from compleat..but if I save that part of the data, I can bring it into 123 and chart it. It will take doing that for a while to see just how good it is, and where the general limits are. At this time I personaly would not bet much on it, BUT I absolutly would "not" bet aginst it. --------------------- Every thing in it is "relitive on a percetage basis"] like RVOL% is the avg vol traded aginst the shares outstanding, so were shares traded on the MEGAs might be more, this points out that is not true if you consider the shares, in other words the tail traded harder "percetage wise" and my back gound causes me to think in terms of "relitive motion". Even a radar screen lies to you if you do not use relitive motion. ---------- Jim