Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (78797)	1/29/2018 7:53:46 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 95456

OK, I hope that this will be the last time I will write this-- No one that I know of says that there won't be cycles any more. The contention is that the cycles will be more muted on the downside and higher on the upside. The downside will be shallower and shorter while the upside will be longer and more profitable for those companies that keep up technologically. The last down cycle in 2015-16 illustrates a shallow down year. PC demand fell more than anyone expected and everyone suffered (especially Micron, whose production was oriented more to PC DRAM and who didn't keep up technologically). In the Bad Old Days, that would have lasted for at least a few years and the losses would have been dramatic. Instead, this time Micron didn't even have a non-GAAP annual loss (they did take a GAAP write-off though), although they only made something like a nickel one year. And they are making record profits now, as are Samsung and Hynix. And those record profits are on their way to lasting longer than ever before, if you look at Micron's 30 year record. The structure of the sector is different. The sources of demand are wider and deeper and getting more so. Yeah, TTID. Even though that doesn't mean that there will never be a down period again. But the down periods themselves will be different. Well, let me amend that slightly: if there is a global recession, then all bets are off. But that is a different thing that a sector cycle.