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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph who wrote (12507)	1/12/1998 4:04:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Respond to of 25960

Joseph, see the last 8,000 posts. eom

To: Joseph who wrote (12507)	1/12/1998 5:08:00 AM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Jess doesn't mean to be rude I'm sure, but short answers to your Q take a whole lot more time than do the questions. Basically, I think Cymer is too new. The community of investors can't look back at five years of steady performance, and as is the case with all breakthrough technologies, competetive ideas are imagined lurking everywhere ready to emerge just in time to upset this applecart, or that one, so the rumor mill rules the day. Fundamentals are for the investor. Rumors are for the traders. Cymer probably did get way ahead of itself...a 50 PE is pretty steep...an established semiequip company might get that, but Cymer??? Does it deserve a 15? Considering the turmoil in Asia, the level of semi-fab pushout uncertainty, the possibility that earnings forecasts might be missed...maybe the market's got it pegged about right. I think it does, but I'm still watching the company as I feel it will do well, when it's time. I know many people here expect an explosive price action almost any day...might happen, but it'll be right back down as profit takes step in. There's a whole bunch of folks who are down big bucks here, and they'll take profits in stages, which will slow the recovery, and make a volitile recovery at that....Chaz.

To: Joseph who wrote (12507)	1/12/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Why did Cymer fall without a change in earnings estimates? Why do analysts so often lower earnings estimates AFTER a stock has fallen? People say the market is irrational. Yes it moves to extremes but it's a very accurate predictor of the future. Tech stocks like Cymer have been falling due to increasing concern that earnings could not continue to grow as they have. The future is very bright for Tech companies, but their business experiences downturns periodically. People who recognize the signs vote with their money and sell. Everyone else will scratch their heads and wonder why. When "everyone" realizes that earnings will not be as good as they expected there will be those who will purchase the shares at a discount, knowing that the long term outlook for Tech companies is unchanged. Does this mean that Cymer will miss their earnings expectations? Probably, but not necessarily. Will most Tech companies miss their earnings expectations? Yes, most assuredly - they are and they will continue to do so until the downturn ends. Rest assured that the Tech stocks will start rising in prices 6 months or so before their earnings actually stregthen. You can sit there and ask yourself why the shares are going up when the earnings are falling - or you can buy, knowing the market place is an amazing predictive device fed by the insights and wisdom of millions of participants.