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To: Yaacov who wrote (15960)	1/12/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Yaacov	Respond to of 27012

Sonki, I am real glad your did well with the bonds! 1998 infact could be a good year for bonds, becasue already it doesn't look too good for the stocks! To buy and hold stocks is great for those of us who can afford it, but there are many people who may need to dip into their portfoglio's for any reason. Well, nobody likes to sell with 30 to 50% loss his assets. That brings us to bonds! When I wrote about bonds sometimes last year, either on this thread of INTC thread, the idea was snobbed! Well here we are in 1998 and the bonds after all may not be be as boring and outmodish as some sleek investors thaink! I have been into bonds since 1972. My protfolgio is 70% in bonds and 30% in stocks. In my opinion bonds are the good soruce of fixed income more than tools of day to day tarding! I hardly trade bonds, I re-invest the coupons in stock market and over the past years, I have made average 12.5% in bonds! Unlike stocks, that when the market goes down could loose 30% bonds don't floctuate much! And even if the bond market gets kicked arround it looses 3 to 4 %, but then if your in there for the coupons and not for trading, you never loose, beccasue your rembursed at the end! Bond market has one negative aspect. 1.Lets say you buy bonds that yield 8.5% and you think the rates are going down. Now if the rates increase to 10%, well you have lost 1.5% interst per year. How do you remmedy that: Buy bonds with a life span of 2 to 3 years! 2. For the past ten years, and 20 years, the S&P 500 has always performed better than bonds. So, if you don't need the coupons, then you be better off to stick with your stocks than bonds! As for bonds qualities, you can follow Moody, but it always doesn't work that way. Moody rated AAA bonds are not always the best bonds you can buy if you look for good div.They are way over par and pay miserable div. The trick in bond market is to buy under par,bonds that pay premium div. and hold for appreciation. What to do to be saft, make mixed basket. You invest in AAA and some bb's and bb1's. On bb's, must be ONLY & ONLY government issued bonds of Argentine, Chile, and Mexico. I pick-up 9 to 11% yield per annum, and my bonds have appreaited. If you ask your broker, they will tell you to stay away, because they get less commisons if they buy you these bonds, so they buy them for themselves!! On AAA German Dutch,or Italian, or other West Eurpean issued bonds you pick-up a few more points over US bonds. Again, most brokers in the US are lost when they cross the Mississipi River, what do they know about foreign investments! ( I met some of these guys in Palm Beach a few years ago. They manage funds, but they though Swiss currency is called Swiss Mark, and Isreali currency is called Dinar???) If you need list of good bonds to buy, pls. contact me. Good luck, Yaacov

To: Yaacov who wrote (15960)	1/12/1998 6:50:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27012

Earnings Alert Due to report earnings after tomorrow's close... Street looking for gain of $0.93, a sequential gain of 5.7% but a year-over-year decline of 13%. Earnings surprises over past two quarters were mixed (-3.6% and +1.7%)... Stock dropped sharply after company missed last quarter's number. FY97 est. = $3.83 (+31.6%); FY98 est. = $4.16 (+8.6%)...Sharp contraction in growth rate likely to result in reduced multiples. Company's exposure to Asia puts current and future quarter's earnings at risk. Intense price competition and increased demand for sub-$1000 PCs also point toward difficult times ahead. At least one analyst optimistic - expects company to beat Q$ estimate by $0.15.