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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert K. who wrote (5334)	1/12/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: Tharos	Respond to of 17367

>> IMO HK is making a big mistake, they say they will hold the line on their currency and most believe its unsustainable. Japan has said the same thing about 130 yen, and that also troubles me. << Bob, It should. Remember a couple (maybe a few now) years back at the "Big 7" conference when the US and Japan pledged to peg the Yen @ 105/$. That failed big time as currency traders drove the dollar to near post war (WWII) lows of 79/$. When the Yen broke the psychological 100/$ barrier both Japan and the US stepped in to prop up the Yen. Worked for about a week. >>are our debts payable in US dollars or do we have to repay in the respective curriencies. << Depends. Regionally, there was a push to value things in Yen because of its percieved strength re the $ and the layman's general misunderstanding of economics and the role infrastructure growth (sometimes collectively called capital improvements) vs. worker productivity plays in GDP growth figures. There has been some reporting of problems associated with large construction projects and regional trade agreements being denominated in $. This causes problems, as you know, because for example a Korean that started a multi-story building and valued the payments/rents in $ is now in serious trouble with the Won halved in value in such a short time. Most countries' banks have $ denominated accounts available for any customer. Koreans have been reported as fleeing to $s. Any US investment vehicle that is not a depository receipt would be valued in $s. Depository receipts (ADRs for us) are by nature valued in local currency. I'm seeing a cycle start, Koreans and Thais are repricing items, bringing the product's Won and Baht prices back in line to equivilent "preinflationary" values. This may become a case of the Tiger chasing its tail (sorry, just couldn't resist the pun) as the world tries to devalue a currency and the country adjusts prices upwards in an effort to maintain its economy. At some point in time the cycle will have to stop and someone will be left without a chair. I would also offer for your mental consumption the observable truth that Asian thinking is much different from Western thinking. I suspect the powers in control of the various countries will 1. do what is best for the rulers. 2. do what is best for the country. ..... 27. do what is best for the individual citizen.

To: Robert K. who wrote (5334)	1/12/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: Tharos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

This morning's news continued to show the turmoil in Indonesia. People are trying to exchange local currency for US$, scenes of people running currency exchange out of the back of trucks were shown. Also some scenes of gold purchases. Also a picture of a guy carrying a sign: IMF = I'M Fired! IMHO long term big looser will be anything priced in US$ and winner will be things priced in Yen. I expect US exports to decline, Japanese exports to increase, and US imports to increase. I'm thinking 50/50 chance this will cause a US recession sometime during Clinton's last year in office. Xoma's tape action continues to be disappointing, but then so does everone elses :-(....