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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bart13 who wrote (139171)2/9/2018 5:38:15 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Respond to of 218863
 
Broken Clocks periodically coincide with the correct time, and Michael Hartnett is no exception.

"High yield, emerging market debt and equities, those would be the three asset classes that would be most likely to come under pressure," Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warned on August 4, 2017. Hartnett said the market would fall in a significant correction sometime during October 2017. - cnbc.com

Hartnett eventually became "right-ish" five months later from a level 20% higher - uncanny - if that's what passes for "being right" in today's markets.

What was Hartnett's "proprietary indicator"?

In technical terms Hartnett said, "The pushback is people have gone back to Goldilocks rather than Humpty Dumpty. Nobody believes in our Icarus theory. Now the market's gone up, and people are thinking maybe the Goldilocks is going to hang around a bit." LOL

"The Bull and Bear is a pretty good, strong reliable positioning indicator. It's pretty close to as good as it gets, but we do need to see flows to high yield pickup. We do need to see flows into emerging markets, both equities and debt, continue to be strong. And another key indicator is the cash level, which you recall in the fund managers' survey has been coming down a little, but it needs to come down a little further," he said.

After enough people over-invested in China the rout would begin, just like most everyone else thought.

Hartnett had other novel insights on February 2, 2017




To: bart13 who wrote (139171)2/9/2018 6:21:09 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218863
 
That Twain line is a favourite of Jay's for a ling while as I recall