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To: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER) who wrote (26398)	1/12/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Bateman, interesting matchup on MU: Kurlak v. Abbey Joseph Cohen <g> The problem for "the best there is" is that...what's left? The guy basically came out and said "chips off the table" and said the time to buy would be in 1-2 years back late Nov./early Dec. (?). Right? So if you're a Kurlak diehard, what do you have that you haven't puked up already? And if you're a trader, you factor in the fact that Kurlak's non-hedge fund clients don't have the ammo anymore; they're puked out. On the flipside, Cohen's (and let's face it, unless she's taken a sudden interest in DRAM players, she's just repeating the work of Roxy the flying squirrel, or whatever the "new" Goldman analyst is called) got dry powder and as flat out silly as it is to start this as a priority buy, and as ludicrous as it is from a valuation perspective, IHMO you could reasonably argue that a lot of the recent price increases reflect both 1) short-term pricing and probably more importantly 2) the assumption that the major industry level issue of rampant overbuilding will have turned for the better in a manner reflected in pricing later in the year. IMHO, #1 isn't that valid, as my guess is the "real rebound" in pricing won't come until later in the year. #2 is important, and outside of analyst comments and recent increases, part of this is being baked in. The problem is - when do you stop pricing it in? And then you have to ask that in tandem with some firm level issues such as their readiness for the 64-Mbit crossover, the assembly bottleneck, etc. If there is "ultimate truth" out there in terms of analyst coverage, IMHO it's not going to come from Kurlak, Niles or Goldman's attempt at a chip analyst. It'll probably come from people like Gumaport (sp?) at Lehman (who, from what I've seen, has been VERY rational and realistic in terms of breaking down the fundementals; price targets are another thing <g>), Milton at BBH (who at present is the only person I've seen to nail this thing both ways; remember Kurlak lowered it to a long-term hold back down around 22), and Lazlo at Pru (who, from what I can remember, has been very accurate w/ his estimates the last two Q's). And then on days like Friday, it's pretty much stop, drop and roll <g> Good trading, Tom