To: Esteban who wrote (10449 ) 1/12/1998 3:33:00 PM From: ivan solotaroff Respond to of 79264
Esteban: I wish I could definitely say that I would do something exactly one way or another. I know Doug has been interested in getting mechanical with the cats as well. I can't, however, say that it's true. Take OXHP: By all my rules I would cover right around now. Being on full margin, I've made 25% on this trade in less than a week, and my experience is that when you get lucky enough for that to happen it's best to cut your winnings and walk away. Being on the RECY express all the way up to 8 1/2 has made me greedy however. (I still have losses I'm trying to avenge, too.) Anyway: "1) You will sell your stock at any time the price drops below your entry price, regardless of how much time has expired from the signal day." Here I can be exact. If I had ridden a successful kitty up, say 10 to 15%, then down to breakeven, I would blow my brains out. You have that in writing. "2) After the 3 post signal days are history, you will sell (or reverse) your position if the day's volume is greater than any of the previous 3 days and the price begins to falter or stops rising (basically breaks the steepest possible valid trendline.)" Here, yes I would tend that way, but I would probably also try to maximalize by waiting out the SELL signal (extra-heavy volume with no significant rise in price) one day. So, if I had taken the OXFD signal rather than SGI, and the SELL signal of 1/5 had come along, I would, knowing myself, have waited till 1/6 and sold on the first or maybe second break. I would've lost 1/4 point or so, maybe even more, but I was also leaving myself in position to benefit if a SELL signal+1 situation had in fact arisen, and there was a possibility of another point or so. "Do you wish to further refine the your definition of a PGDCEB candidate beyond the 30-30 rule? Only that I feel perfection is possible only in refining the choice. I may be the Captain Ahab of the catworld in this regard, but I feel the signal day, as Doug first proposed it coupled with further screens, is potentially a zero-risk play. As I mentioned, there's a shape I see with every successful cat, and that's what I'm stalking now: Serious gap (for me, just me I understand, that's 30%plus, but the higher the better), followed by further blowoff activity, leading to a long flat bottom followed by a sharp two or three day drop) culminating in the sell signal day we all know and love so well. To my mind, the best future candidate for this is NRGN, and if this all should happen in four weeks, I'd be on that stock like a cheap suit. The two other classic examples I have of it are OXHP and TSEMF. The only thing that concerns me with NRGN is that the three to five days of the post gap do not have THIS shape in the volume bars. Most of the good ones show this kind of orderly gradual slowdown in the blowoff: / / / / // /// //// ///// When I see that, I get excited. Ivan