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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (139359)2/20/2018 1:31:29 AM
From: bull_dozer  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218715
 
>> in case marty is right-again
>> cannot be totally in, in case marty is dead wrong

Hedging is the best policy.. <G>


The problem with real estate has been that its value depends upon lending. This was what the government did as part of the New Deal by creating 30-year mortgages back during 1930s. This was a scheme to get prices up by extending the period people could pay off the loan. Typically, the duration was 5 years previously. Because of the 30-year mortgage, prices have risen to reflect the accumulative amount of earnings available. If there was no lending, prices would collapse to 10 cents on the dollar until cash buyers become interested.

The collapse in Quantitative Easing will have the effect of causing rates to rise on the long-term. However, there will be a shift toward private assets and this will help to a large extent. However, keep in mind that many institutions will be trapped and unable to shift to private assets. Many boards will not understand the shift and still believe, wrongly, that unsecured government debt is best.


armstrongeconomics.com



To: TobagoJack who wrote (139359)2/20/2018 9:31:31 AM
From: bart13  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218715
 
What I'm still looking at is a lagged response to "hidden" inflation, much like the late 70s historical parallel, and velocity is very much part of it (M2 velocity has ticked up a bit lately). Momo has also somewhat disappeared recently too, although ths morning pre-open Dow futures are down almost 200 (S&P 500 only down about 20) so I've assumed my lookout position (much like I suspect the PPT is doing)...