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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (4399)	1/12/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Hello Mason, I have heard that the number of 300mm pilot lines announced last year has shrunk from 7 to 3. Also, that the adoption of the larger wafer size has been pushed out by 1-2 years to 2002-2004. This is due to tool immaturity in lithography; CMP; and metrology. Moreover, advances in Deep UV, resists, and masks, may enable current generation tools (8" ) 248 nanometer light source to be extended down to .15 micron design rules. The ability of die shrinks with existing tool sets reduces the appeal and incremental capital risk of 300 mm. ******************Important******************************* Some way positive news for the Semis: DRAM prices have upticked for the last 4 days. DRAM prices for 16 meg 4X4 EDO which is rapidly being replaced by sychronous DRAM (SDRAM) are up from $2.19 to $2.97, representing an increase of 36%. Moreover, 16MB 2X8 SDRAM has risen from $2.21 to $2.52 for an increase of 14%. This could be just a short term mix issue as the 64MB DRAMS (next generation product) have not moved up at all. Also, I have heard that many nations around the world in the DRAM business have taken an extended holiday, by shutting down fabs temporarily to reduce variable losses. Many of you know that DRAM price declines have been my number one reason for being bearish. I will follow this closely as DRAM prices are our only clue of an impending turn in fundamentals. 4 days don't establish a trend, but certainly go up on my radar screen as this might corroborate many of the bullish cases that have been pounded into my head by many on this thread. There are rumors that the Koreans reduced output because they could not pay for consumables; wafers; leadframes; and gold wire for bonding. This report came out of Montgomery Securities. This could be construed favorably by you bulls, to the extent that prices have at a minimum stopped declining which would mitigate further commodity producer margin pressure. I will post further discovery on this issue, Jay