To: tango who wrote (319 ) 1/14/1998 11:37:00 AM From: traacs Respond to of 784
MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY: As of January 13, 1998 World Wide's management feels compelled to comment on the rash of recent articles, virtually all negative, regarding nuclear power programs (see The Economist, January 10) as well as the decline in stock price of certain uranium production companies (see The Financial Post, January 13). We find it interesting that the Economist article - which reached the conclusion that a majority of currently operating nuclear reactors will be closed by 2030 - may be viewed as significantly newsworthy. The nuclear industry has been aware of that fact for years, with even the Uranium Institute forecasting a decline in installed nuclear capacity commencing around 2010. Secondly, the observation by some stock analysts that the stock price decline can be attributed to that apparent revelation appears to run somewhat counter to the general belief that the stock markets operate on a time horizon of months (or even days!), but, in this instance, investors are looking thirty years into the future. While we can agree that persistent low spot market prices coupled with negative financial news from Asia/Pacific could lead the average investor to conclude that some uranium mining company stocks are not a positive investment, we disagree with that conclusion for the following reason: As was reported by the Uranium Exchange in October, 1997 and again referenced in the latest issue of the Ux Weekly, planned production forecasts continue to substantially decline. Last October, Ux stated that their forecast of Western uranium production dropped by more than 50 million pounds U3O8 for the 1998 - 2001 time frame. Moreover, anticipated relatively flat spot uranium prices for 1998 (or at least less volatile than in previous years) would lead to further declines in future production levels, all of which "will serve to set up the market for better fundamentals after 1998". Again, these references are to spot market conditions but are likely to be generally reflected in the long-term market, at least for the majority of utility buyers The Economist article, however, did remain reasonably positive regarding Japan and, more importantly, China. In conclusion, recent events indicate a relatively neutral near-term period (6-12 months) for uranium suppliers from a perception standpoint but reduced future production forecasts will lead to improved future prices, reflective of basic demand and supply relationships.