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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (28853)	3/6/2018 11:55:38 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34328

QRT was a high risk method that wasn't proven. TIS is the guinea pig. IF it proves out - they'll be building market share in the highest margin sectors. THat faster growth and better margins will run a long time if competitors decide to copy them. These new designs take time and are not guaranteed. I think TIS saw this as a long term event and will get it fine tuned. One thing for sure ValMet is in with making it work - if it proves out it will be the next new way to go for the global industry. I still think big market shares players are out to make TIS go broke and buy up the new technology through th BK courts. Tis is in the struggle of their life. If / when they make it - they'll grow fast and have a better margin - time for some pay back. I don't think Tis knew the difficulty of what they attempted to do - especially on a shoe string balance sheet. As Steve always said it is a 2018 event. Look at hoe long memory and semi's took to ramp up new nodes and other designs. It doe not happen in a quarter! mean while those who bought the at market stock got killed along with every one else with today's wash out to 8.95 ERGG! Bob

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (28853)	3/6/2018 1:33:23 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34328

I listened to the CC and was quite impressed w/ the new machine efficiencies and their advantage (at least for now) in the ultra premium product market. They are converting to this ultra product mix as they have pricing power and higher margins. They are only at 65% capacity and have two more customers as they move more production into this category w/ June/July 2018 for them. That s/d bring up capacity at/near 90%. The big issue is product input costs which they have little control over. Also, some of their contracts require delivery to the customer (or their warehouse) and that was $1mln last quarter and is an added cost. The CEO is not worried about selling new ultra premium products, and order are eaisly obtained (from the CC) and that is where they have a big competitive advantage. Their debt interest went from 5.5% to ober 7% YoY due to the covenant bank waiver fees but still not too bad when you consider what they would have to pay if they floated a preferred issue and/or a corporate debt note. CEO seems to think their bank financing will work fine especially if they can expand EBITDA and FCF. I did not look at the covenant terms which CEO said contained some additional terms. I still think this stock is valued at high teens. Other manufacturing facility was boxed into standard non premium product that has no pricing power and impacted by input costs. All input costs higher w/ lumber/paper prices on the rise, so that earlier model would be a money loser. I agree that dividend is way out and definitely impacted by input commodity prices. TIS has become a possible take out candidate. FWIW, there was no mention in CC on their Mexico partnership which was a big component. I believe partner sold their interest but I thought the U.S. sales deals still existed. I did another small buy @ $9.40/share that added 15% more shares to my current position. TIS becomes a GARP stock and will need to see what EBITDA looks like at the beginning of Q3 2018 period. EKS