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To: Gordon Quickstad who wrote (746)1/13/1998 7:15:00 AM
From: van wang  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1229
 
Gordon...its scalable to 128 processors at this moment...but this is a quote from SQNT (related to my conversation with them)..."if they can actually offer that price [when you buy it], short the stock"

price performance is not the only factor...I am less concern...more concern about their access to new customers...its really hard to displace mainframe suppliers (long sales cycle) and present day server relationships (because they may have a solution and broader product line)

going forward, SQNT mgmt said they will still shoot for 30% top line in 1998 but 25% is more conservative and realistic...but they expect to grow earnings 35 to 40%...and is on target to reach 10% pretax operating by end of 1998

recent weakness is due to guidance of Q1 downward which is traditionally been weak...their guidance is a concern because they are directing people to 10 cents which is way short of what people are calling (before 16 to 22 cents)...I think they are hedging...in the last few weeks, people are revising their numbers down...I have them at $1.30 1998...most will have them $1.40 down from $1.50...1Q should be 14 to 15 cents after all the revisions...of course all this could change after fiscal release

I feel if they come in light or meet expectations then growth is slower then we expected and we should trim our holdings...if they exceed, then we should still sell because they made a rush to at the end to beat earnings and may have push some deals to 4Q which happens often...yes, the bottomline is SQNT goes down always in the 1Q period because there is ntg to be excited about...sales got their commissions and put in hours to finish the fiscal..the only positive scenario is if SQNT exceed numbers and I am wrong on them pushing deals up...pay attention to gross margins...IMO

in the same light, I think MOT's got more problems because they came in light...u can bet on them trying to make their numbers on a few deals but cudnt get it done...I think they go down after calling for softening earnings and sales growth for the next 2Qs...they are much more optimistic then reality IMO

cheers