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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Weekapaug who wrote (703)	1/13/1998 5:03:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

Hi Ken, welcome back. Kinda stagnated today...odd. I wonder if the suggestion that interest rates may not be lowered until June is what put a damper on the stock today. I wonder how they selected June? Pulled a month out of the hat, or they're gonna lower the interest rates one way or another before the companies go on the auction block? I believe Brazil ended up, yet TBR remained UNCH here, despite a couple of runs to 107 plus. One of today's stories suggested Brazilian stocks would likely remain very volatile for a while yet. It would appear that the story of a couple weeks ago suggesting that the TBR advisor selection was delayed till February may have been accurate. That suggests to me that the remaining details we're looking for may not be available till March or thereafter. I believe the 300 million of 132 real puts that BNDS sold expire in March so you would think they'd push to have the details out before then...the only info I've been able to find is what was posted waaay upthread on Sept. 2 that indicated they had a six month expiration. There are some key pieces of legislation that look like they'll be approved soon (story posted today) and look for 12 month earnings to released near the end of the month. I looked back a ways and found that monthly YTD earnings seem to be released the last day or two of each month, or occassionally the first day or two of the next month, although 11th month earnings came out on 12/23, I assume due to the holidays. These should help bump the stock, but in the meantime, I've heard of a possible trading range of 90-118 (90 seems awfully low to me, but after this week who knows) and it's always possible that the asian concerns cause a general market retest of last Friday's lows in the next 10-15 days. Bottom line, it wouldn't surprise me to see another dip down to 95 or so before we permanently establish a higher trading range. Now that I've said that though, it'll probably come closer to my previously speculated trading ranges. Hopefully Intel will not put a damper on the enthusiam generated by today's blowout earnings (.98) with their conference call and we'll rally those asian markets tonight and TBR tomorrow. Thanks for the link to Investor.com. Good luck. sf