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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: semi_infinite who wrote (889)7/20/2018 1:19:10 PM
From: tuck1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Lance Bredvold

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 897
 
It's possible that, because of Reata's (RETA) surrogate endpoint, the trial will meet that endpoint. It is less likely to be approved. If there's an AdComm, forget it. And even if it sneaked through that, what nephrologist would prescribe it given the long term risk for patients that are likely to be long term patients? PGS suggests patience required before this one implodes, and he may be right. It's been a short squeezing rocket lately. The only clinical or regulatory clarity I've seen lately was Orphan Designation for Freidrich's Ataxia. Hardly justifies the 150% rise since you posted that paper. I've built a position, currently somewhat under water (made a little on a RETA short earlier this year). But I am prepared to be patient. Others see the problem: short interest is huge. But heavily shorted biotechs are going bananas these days.

Witness Galectin (GALT) piggybacking on the success of other NASH players. GALT's own effort failed in P2, but for a non-protective subset analysis that has it targeting patients with esophageal varies. Syros failed with its patient enrichment strategy. It hasn't recovered as well, but since Jounce failed with a similar strategy, SYRS has floated along . . .

Also, what's going on with Mirati (MRTX, today, particularly)? I haven't looked closely at that one.

Intercept (ICPT) has bounced hard on the theory that its safety issues are due to dosing that can be fixed, and meanwhile, I hear scrips are doing OK. But it has to equal MDGL in the much bigger NASH space, and I have doubts about that (though there is some evidence of resolution of fibrosis). Have a slightly underwater position on that one, too.

Biogen (BIIB) re-analyzes its AD trial, and suddenly it's a win. I've shorted that for a modest profit recently, and continue to watch it (it's tempting cuz it's so liquid).

Akcea (AKCA), recently approved, but likely to have a slow launch, IMO. Recently started a position there.

Meanwhile, it's been quite the IPO year. Oddly, some of them are considered good quality. But so many are out that are barely - or not even - in the clinic.

Signs of frothiness abound.

Cheers, Tuck