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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Benn who wrote (2661)	1/13/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: hal jordan	Respond to of 10309

>Remember that Navio was founded by principals of Netscape, so think of Navio as having an embedded Netscape browser. This means that WIND now is armed with the source code and essentially the brand name of Netscape enabling it to attack EID markets confidentially at all levels. They now have all the pieces of the puzzle. Moreover, it will not hurt that WIND's browser will be compatible with NCI's and rooted in the Netscape mystique.< So what happens if Netscape turns out to be an utter flop if Internet Explorer captures the market? How would that scenario affect WINDs investment? Hal

To: Allen Benn who wrote (2661)	1/13/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: Mark Brophy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Navio will benefit from the Wind River mystique. Moreover, it will not hurt that WIND's browser will be compatible with NCI's and rooted in the Netscape mystique. As the 30 month chart at techstocks.com clearly shows, the stock of Wind River has vastly outperformed Netscape during the time Netscape has been a public company. So, you have it backwards! On the other hand, Netscape once had a mystique that they've since lost. Perhaps the same thing could happen to Wind River.

To: Allen Benn who wrote (2661)	1/13/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: Jason Cogan	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10309

Allen: I agree with most of your points about WIND needing GUI capability, and the general good sense of aquiring the Netscape technology and stamp of approval. A couple of questions for you: 1. How do you see the future generations of NCOS playing out? Is it possible that WIND will now find themselves both a competitor and partner to NCI's own vision, creating conflicts down the road? 2. What do you think of the price tag? How did WIND arrive at the number ($10 million), and do you think they got a better deal given the recent Asian technology weakness and sag in Netscape/Oracle stock? As for J. Kerner's question regarding WIND's recent stock weakness, I have my own theory to go along with your short seller attack, 13G filing rationales. Here goes: With the aqcuisition, WIND will now post a nominal loss for the first time since their IPO quarter in 1994. Although management has gone to great lengths to make this acquisition transparent, the fact remains that the tape will read: "WIND RIVER SYSTEMS posts 4th quarter 4-6 cent/ share loss after one time charge against earnings." WIND's stock normally moves unexpectdly around earnings announcements, given the poor analyst coverage and general market mistrust of extremely small, extremely fast growing companies. Many of the money managers who own the stock have at best a cursory understanding of WIND's business. This was evident to me from my recent attendance of the DMG technology conference in Laguna Nigel, CA. My fear is that the reality of a nominal loss, as evidenced by Ron Abelman's statement, is leading to the recent selling. Money managers are selling in advance of this announcement. In essence, they are saying: Why wait for a potential market misunderstanding of the number? Better to take money off the table now. What do you think of this rationale? Also, what do you think the market's reaction will be in February, assuming current market levels and no further Asian deterioration? I encourage everyone to present thoughts on this issue. Regards, Jason Cogan