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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (60585)	3/22/2018 9:33:27 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78774

The only moat they have is (1) loyalty of brand and/or (2) shelf space they buy in supermarket. Not at all a very large moat if at all. ConAgra Foods reported their sales. It confirms the negative growth and lower margins: Organic sales declined for ConAgra Foods in Q3 ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) reports organic net sales declined 2.2% in Q3, reflecting reductions in retailer inventory levels. Segment net sales: Grocery & Snacks: $838M (-1%); Refrigerated & Frozen: $689M (+3%); International: $223M (+9%); Foodservice: $224M (-6%). Adjusted gross margin rate slipped 160 bps to 30%. The company expects to repurchase ~$1.1B of shares of its common stock this year. FY2018 Guidance: Net sales: ~150 bps higher than the organic net sales growth rate; Organic net sales: near the high end of -2% to flat; Adjusted operating margin rate: low end of 15.9% to 16.3%; Tax rate: 29% to 30%; Adjusted EPS: $2.03 to $2.05. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The one area that popped out to me was Refrigerated & Frozen +3%. Could be a positive for AMNF w/ their products and maybe DF w/ their dairy products (and value of company owned refrigerated truck fleet). Maybe they use those trucks to deliver other product to market. EKS

To: robert b furman who wrote (60585)	3/22/2018 2:21:09 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By Lance Bredvold Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78774

Re: Dean Foods Company (DF) - I also monitor Milk Production Stats and Dairy Herd size Here is the link to USDA Milk production report (by selected states). The key is to watch the average dairy herd size and milk production. If prices stay too low farmers will thin out their herd, reducing total milk production that s/d eventually result in higher milk prices. There is still a ways for the Midwest farmers to reduce their herd size. Also, Canadian tariffs (import of U.S. milk) impacts U.S. supply/price and the recent duties do not help the U.S. farmers (ie lower imports by Canada w/ higher duties imposed, that results in higher domestic U.S. supply). Therefore, the processors and/or dairy farmers that can survive in this low price environment, will do quite well when prices eventually increase. Lots of moving parts for the small dairy farmer to make money YoY.. EKS