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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (108309)	3/25/2018 3:58:32 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 116834

The only caveat to that possibly is that Trump also.. renewed his tariff threat to Nafta partners at the tariff signing...

To: Rarebird who wrote (108309)	3/25/2018 7:19:54 PM
From: stuffbug	Respond to of 116834

RB, for someone who is always looking at short term technical factors, it sure is odd that you are worried about fundamentals. 1. Trade deals don't have a major impact on overall metals prices. They affect currency pairs which can cause the price to go up in one currency but the reverse will occur in the other currency. Right now, the most important currency pair to watch is the USD / Yen. The Yen has broken out versus the dollar and gold will follow. 2. Gold can be positively or inversely correlated with the SP500. Gold rallied along side the SP500 from mid December to the end of January. 3. Yes, the fear trade is often quickly reversed. However, I don't believe there is any fear trade in the gold market right now. What happened when the SP500 experienced a micro crash in early February? Gold also tanked. I think gold was trading off the FOMC meeting - very often gold is weak heading into the meeting and then strengthens afterwards. That also coincided with the Chinese New Year fundamentals - buying ends ahead of the New Year. A note on the miners. They have been held in check by massive shorting (naked and otherwise). On any of the common valuation metrics, the miners are the most undervalued as they have ever been. All in sustaining cost (AISC) to mine one ounce of gold is below $1,000 for most intermediate and senior producers. Many have costs in the $900 area. The miners reported positive cash flows in Q4 2017 when the realized gold price was $1275. For Q1 2018, gold will average approximately $50 higher. So cash flows will increase sequentially, resulting in beats to the analyst estimates. Even with gold price assumptions of $1250 - $1300, majors are projecting debt reductions over the next few years. And as I pointed out in another post, institutional money flows have been very positive for GDX since early February.

To: Rarebird who wrote (108309)	3/25/2018 9:22:50 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116834

It seems like a PPT trade setup, short gold in size to get long spx futures. It is Sunday evening and it may be too late. SPX - btfd Gold - sell Mortimer Sell

To: Rarebird who wrote (108309)	3/25/2018 9:28:57 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116834

marketwatch.com

To: Rarebird who wrote (108309)	3/26/2018 8:15:56 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116834

I suppose we are going to find out now how much of this market decline was based on tariff talk and trade tensions. Most countries have now become exempt (if only temporarily) from the steel and aluminum tariffs. Negotiations with China are underway. There was no question in my mind that the market would have kept on falling to pre Nafta levels if all trade agreements got nixed and trade wars developed. I raised the questions above (in the referenced post) because I was trying to factor in what was priced into the POG and the Miners as a result of these trade tensions. Clearly, there were other factors which contributed to the market decline and rise in the POG and it was not so easy to quantify which factor contributed the most. And I think that's important to assess moving forward. Anyway, I am going to have a lot to say about gold, silver and the miners later this morning.