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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WBendus who wrote (631)	1/13/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

From Briefing: 10:57 ET N2K Inc. (NTKI) 23 3/4 +2 3/8: What a hype job! Money-manager in Barron's says he expects strong sales growth of $4 mln for the 4th qtr. The next trading session, company says it expects to log even stronger sales of $4.7 mln. The stk jumps 6 1/2 pts over two sessions. But look at the numbers. It's certainly not a major feat to log revenues of more than $4 mln considering that NTKI did $3.57 mln the qtr before. Look closely at the numbers, and they reveal that even $4.7 mln would be a sharp decline in sequential growth, in what should have been the company's strongest qtr of the yr. There's nothing worse than smoke and mirrors stock touting. These are the same folks who first tipped NANX as a hollow shell. Anyone know when NTKI IPO'ed and when we can short it?

To: WBendus who wrote (631)	1/19/1998 8:31:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Wayde, I agree with your basic premise that there is a hidden reserve of cash out there yet to be invested and that does provide strong support in the Dow 7000-7500 area. And I do hope to see an earnings rally during the next several weeks, although the uncertainties out there make me cautious to invest in anything except Y2K stocks. One of the issues not being widely discussed that is related to the Asian "flu", is the general lack of awareness, nor preparations for the Year 2000 millenium bug. They seems to be great nervousnous in the "back room" discussions between the financial experts but no one is quite willing to state opinions publically as of yet. It is only an educated guess on my part, but I submit that we will be fortunate to see Dow 8000 again (chart pattern), and we may easily see 6500 before summer as awareness rises and investors go to cash, bonds, or REIT's (which seem to be looked at like a bond substitute). Do you see anything wrong in my analysis?? I just see more reasons to sell stocks than to buy them given that next quarter earnings will reflect more fully the state of the Asian impact on the US economy. Y2K may well be the knockout punch to their financial institutions. Regards, Ron