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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Graham Osborn who wrote (60656)	4/5/2018 10:56:58 PM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Recommended By staring Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

I always try to remember that a lot of Gorillas grew quickly up until Y2K and then fell off for some reason. Part of it was the self-reenforcing cycles of price-vs-SBC and price-vs-acquisitions (I haven’t delved deeply enough to know whether any reflexive processes are currently in effect). But the top line was affected too - it was almost like there was a discrete hypergrowth phase in the growth of the Internet and then once those new supply chains were formed it entered a new, slower-growth phase I remember the time well. I just started to work at a company that would become part of a “Gorilla “company in the then booming telecom sector. The whole boom was Capex driven. Part of it was the Y2000k boom, then there was the telecom boom , with fibers laid everywhere, driving a boom in network equipment. companies couldn’t build enough of this stuff quickly enough. Upstarts were booming with hit money coming in. Because delivery times lengthen, company would order twice as much as they needed to get half etc. Typical boom bust cycle. FB and GOOG are different , as they are growing organically for the most part and there is real cash flow. There is not Capex, except maybe with Crypto mining, which I think will turnout to be one of the biggest follys of mankind since the pyramids were build, and a huge waste of electricity, but that had nothing to do with those FANG stocks. Those FANG stocks also don’t trade at 100x earnings like the Gorillas did in their day.