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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (60703)	4/13/2018 5:03:20 PM
From: Lazarus	Respond to of 78751

Appreciate the input on GOV. my takeaways are: No chance of takeover with RMR managed REITS Large dividend attracts investors (but often to their detriment) "value trap, if not worse" We all have various reasons as to when and why we buy any given stock. Paul happened to mention that the YUGE dividend right now and the price -- being at a 12 month low -- was his attraction. I'd like to give my reasoning (without getting scorned for bringing TA into conversation). Paul mentions the stock being at a 12 month low -- I look at the chart and see its not just at a 12 month low but an ALL TIME LOW. I'm also attracted by the YUGE (although perhaps not sustainable dividend). So when I look at the chart and observe the pivots (horizontal lines on chart) I see the stock has spent most of the last 9 years trading in the $17.50 to $23.00 range. Obviously at those prices the yield, while still hefty, was much lower than it is in the $12.00 range. The chart is from June 2009 to the present -- so ~ 105 months. Of those 105 months the stock has traded under $17.50 for 13 mos (so far) -- or about 12 % of the time (to date - can change). So then I go to the filings in July of 2016 to take a look at what the book value was the LAST TIME it hit a low and the math tells me it was $13.45 per share - ALMOST EXACTLY WHAT IT IS TODAY - only as another has mentioned they the have greatly expanded their asset base (and outstanding shares). I'm not that good at numbers but it looks like 2015 was a much worse year than 2017... and the question is how is 2018 going to pan out and will they be able to sustain the dividend. For those questions I don't have answers. So when its all said and done I'm using a combination of the (debatable) value of the stock, the hope of at least 1/2 the dividend being paid out, and ODDS of price recovery into the $17 - $23.00 range based upon historical performance (the chart). If one is going to go after a dividend it only makes sense to do so at the lowest possible price. While we don't know if this is the lowest possible price we do know its a 12 month and all time low. Thus ---> and am willing to take some here and see how it plays out. I'm also willing to flip out of it if it doesnt look like it will play out (or other market factors). Long GOV, for now, until I'm not. ps... I suspect a new trading range to form between $15.00 and $21 --- bwdik???