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To: Rarebird who wrote (108657)	4/19/2018 12:12:47 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 116837

Yes, that's the million dollar question. Most mainstream economists are saying the slow down or recession will occur in 2019 or 2020. Looking at all the metrics, I'd normally agree with that assessment. Even the rate hikes to me aren't the biggest worry, because at the rate they are hiking, it shouldn't have a significant impact on the economy until 2019 or 2020. But like I said before QT is the wildcard, which makes me believe that will accelerate a market reaction by a year or two into 2nd half 2018. May will give us a good signal and then Sept/Oct will be the other hurdle to jump. These are interesting times.

To: Rarebird who wrote (108657)	8/9/2018 10:34:49 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116837

Bull market remains despite QT continuing to ratchet up. Amazing to see new highs, but seems justified by great earnings reports? Starting in September, QT ratchets up to $50B per month. Let's see what $600B per year in QT and 1% increase per year in rates does to these markets. Can they survive that double barreled shotgun, plus the trade war with China? Surely, we're at a peak this very moment. BTW, I'm now laddered monthly in bonds out to 2 years, yielding on average 2.7% with 65% of my money, and in cash yielding around 1% with other 35% of my portfolio. I'm living off the interest, so I've had to take a cut in what I pay myself. :) There is opportunity cost, but I feel safe. When will the break in markets come? That's the million dollar question.