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Technology Stocks : Intel Strategy for Achieving Wealth and Off Topic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sonki who wrote (16036)	1/13/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: lbs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27012

OT- Sonki, I am down in PA and I left your number at home. Please send me an e-mail and I will call you tonight. I think I am going to need your help doing my new job. I will cut you in to my bonus, but only if you earn it :) Dab

To: Sonki who wrote (16036)	1/13/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: TechnoWiz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27012

Hi Sonki and all: What a great day! As I pre-supposed in my post last night Asia came back strong and with the help of great news today, looks like we have a good chance of blowing all those shorts, (and there's a lot of 'em), right out of the Water. The Asian reversal is taking on a firmer tone and potentially looks solid enough for the selloff to have run it's course for some time. I pre-wrote the following last night with the intention of posting it but no amount of trying could enable me to respond. Although, the recent bottom only happened yesterday, it seems like ancient history already, however I decided to post this anyway because when a good bottom is made amidst a massive extreme of pessimism it is often a bottom of great importance and longevity. Although I expect some kind of retest within a week or two, so far this bottom has coincided with a very important and dominant 40 week cycle that has been become increasingly evident in recent years. The combination of all of these factors and the oversold nature of many stocks could conjure up enexpectedly bullish behaviour. As posted yesterday, Intel has a habit of going off on a tear, as it did in early July 97 from the same 70's level and it looks to be on one now! Several strong closes over 80, would position Intel technically, to potentially negate the recent bearish structure that helped force the market down from 102 to 67.6. If this structure is negated, new highs are definately possible for Intel. Once 80 is exceeded 90 would be the next target. Here's last night's attempted post for your interest: Please feel free to comment. To Sonny, your'e "Trading Godess" wife was right on! ON BUYING IN GLOOM. Sonki: I am addressing this to you because I think you are one who has a knack for picking up stocks on the cheap. But it is meant for the benefit of all, who may not have had the benefit of first hand knowledge of some of our recent history's more notable market events. And I'm not talking about 1987. Everybody already knows about that one. Still, the one common denominator that is always prevalent at market bottoms that ought to give us the courage to step up and buy is the fact that the smart money is almost always there alongside you and usually is in strong hands. Looks like the smart money was out bargain hunting overnight in Asia. Some interesting turnaround developing. For what it's worth, I want to tell you an important lesson I learned a long time ago. When you are confronted with episodes of extreme pessimism such as is being experienced over the Asian situation right now, you need to be especially attentive and ready to pounce on fire-sold assets that are being panic liquidated. Why? Because the next move up could be even greater than the previous decline, even though that may be difficult to perceive at this time. Example 1: Britain 1974: The US market bottomed in 1975, but more importantly so did the UK market following a massive collapse that at the time few thought it could ever come out from under. Believe it or not, the 74/5 decline in stock prices was far greater than what Britain experienced between 1929 and 1932. The stock market fell from 547 to 149, but nobody ever refers to it as the Great English Depression. The degree of gloom in the UK in 1975 is comparable with Asia today. Industries were being shut down en masse and production was so slow there was a three day working week as inventories were reduced. Interestingly, less than 10 years later the market was 1000% higher and today the FTSE is over 5000. 1000's of percent higher. Asia has been on an unstoppable growth path since the 50's immune from the rest of the World, it is finally succumbing to a correction. Example 2: Mexico 1994: The degree of gloom in Mexico three years ago was equal if not greater than that of the UK in 1974. Just like in Britain where everybody from the Queen to the page boys got hurt, in Mexico few were unscathed from Billionaire to pauper everybody got hammered. Just like in Texas people walked away from their houses and banks were stuck with non-performing loans. Hundreds of thousands of civil engineers were laid off. Tens of thousands of defaulted Mexican properties were auctioned off to US institutions in San Antonio. For a while, things were really grim. Few people had any confidence in the Peso and less in the potential for the economy to recover. But, because I had seen what happened in the UK and noting their similarities in the extent of the decline and economic wreckage, I was confident that the Mexican recovery would begin within the year and because of Nafta would be a lot stronger than anyone imagined. The most amazing result is the Mexican recovery has been nothing short of spectacular. Verging on miraculous. Today, Mexico is booming. For the last two years the Mexican peso has been the strongest currency in the World,(at least up until Oct 97). Mexico today is growing at a rate of 7% and the underground economy must represent at least 3%, I believe that the underground economy was a significant aid in the Mexican recovery. Unemployment nationwide is running at less than 4% and in Tijuana it is 1%. Other border cities are experiencing labor shortages. On recent visits to various Mexican cities I see more prosperity than I have ever seen before and US suburbans, explorers and expeditions are abundant. You don't necessarily see a lot of Mercedes, (except for the country's luxury coach transportation system) but sport utilities and light to luxury trucks are everywhere. Interestingly, both the economic recovery and stockmarket rise has been mirroring the British recovery of the late '70's - actually it has exceeded it especially in employment growth, economic growth and stock market performance. Therefore, be mindful that while many are saying that Asian problems can only be solved long term, that may not necessarily be the case. I heard the same thing told to me by everyone from billionaires, to stockbrokers and shopkeeps about the poor prospects for Mexico in '95. As it turned out, they were wrong, very wrong. The same thing may turn out to be true of Asia today. It seems to me that corrections, both market and economic seem to be getting shorter as time goes on. The most important developments in the Asian crisis is that these problems are being addressed and addressed now. In a curious way, just as it is succeeding in Mexico, the US is actually imposing a new form of economic doctrine over Asia that could best be described "Democratic Discipline." This could have profound long-term positive implications. The most intriguing development would be closer economic and political ties and better relations between all these nations and the US, especially China. Let's face it, beats being at war. And the one Asian nation that we have not yet heard about being in trouble is Vietnam. Maybe their resilience built up over the last 35 years has rendered them invulnerable to just about any sort of crisis that most others are now finding it hard to deal with.