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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (705)	1/13/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

BRAZIL CONGRESS WEEK-Cardoso in race against time Reuters, Tuesday, January 13, 1998 at 13:57 (I couldn't find this on Yahoo - sf) By Adrian Dickson BRASILIA, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Leaders of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's multi-party coalition on Tuesday began a race against time to approve long-awaited reforms before the country is overcome by election fever ahead of the October 3 national polls. The government reckons it has an 80-day window of opportunity to push through its reform agenda before April 3, the cutoff date for officials to resign their posts if they plan to run for elective office and the unofficial start date of the election campaign. In that period government whips hope to vote on at least two important constitutional amendments: an overhaul of the social security system and a bill that ends special privileges for civil servants. "I think they'll manage to do it. But it's going to go right down to the line," said Ricardo Pedreira, of political consultants Santa Fe Ideias. On Tuesday a 31-member lower house committee will begin debate of the government's controversial social security bill. Congressional procedure requires the committee to meet for at least 10 sessions before a final version of the bill is put to the vote at a committee level. If approved, the bill must then be submitted to the house floor where it will require the support of a three fifths majority in two separate votes. While the government appears to have enough support at the committee level for the social security bill to be approved without suffering significant alterations, analysts say the real challenge will be during the full house vote. Pedreira said that while Cardoso's allies generally support the president's reform agenda, they won't surrender their votes without asking for something in return. Senior congressmen, who like feudal lords control the votes of dozens of more junior colleagues, will be demanding pork for their constituencies in the run up to the elections. Some of the more powerful parties within the government's coalition may also expect a cabinet seat in exchange for their support, following a government reshuffle that will inevitably follow the April 3 deadline, analysts said. "This is the last chance for congressmen to strike a bargain. Expect Congress to be transformed into a Turkish Bazaar," said Pedreira. Also this week the Senate Constitution and Justice Committee should vote on a government version of the civil service bill that has already been approved by the lower house. Analysts expect the civil service vote to go smoothly as Cardoso's allies enjoy a comfortable majority in the Senate. Ironically, the latest collapse in Asian markets could actually help the government strengthen its hand in the run up to the key social security and civil service votes. Congress, which has stalled approval of much of Cardoso's reform program over the past three years, was spurred into action in November after financial turmoil in the Pacific Rim spread to Brazilian markets. With a currency that some analysts say is overvalued by as much as 30 percent, Brazil is viewed by foreign analysts as a prime target for a speculative attack. However last week chief government whip Luiz Eduardo Magalhaes was heard musing that lawmakers had lost the sense of urgency that had prompted November's blaze of legislative action. That was before stock markets took a new tumble in Asia, driving down the leading Sao Paulo stock index by over 9 percent since the beginning of the year. adrian.dickson@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service