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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (60734)	4/21/2018 3:26:26 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78763

Re TIS - you know hat happens when a strong management gets into a barn business :-(. A CEO generally can’t change the fate of a company, if the margins are low, there isn’t much the CFO can do about it. He can make decisions about appropriate costs (reaching those goals are another matter) and setting forth plans to structure the finances, but he can’t make a good business out of a bad one. I listened to the Kahnemann book -;Thinking fast and slow, and while it is a book on human psychology, there are quite a few examples from finances and stock markets . He mentions amongst other things a tendency of manager to overestimate their impact on the company prospect, which according to one study only correlated with about 0.3 with the outcome, meaning that 70% is determined by other factors. Hard to verify and even a 0.3 correlation can be worth a lot of course. The hygiene paper business seems to be encroached by store brand “generics”, which is obvious when you look at KMB’s results lately. This is pretty bad news from 2nd Tier companies like TIS or on in case of BGS for consumer goods. I have set 5 qualitative criteria as a checklist for stock purchases and from guessing, it seems like BGS probably meets 3/5, at best, which IMO does not make it a clear buy: 1) Is this a good business? 2) Is the stock cheap? 3) Is management capable and honest? 4) Is the stock Safe (balance sheet, durability) 5) Are there more Head Winds or tail winds going forward? To be precise, I think BGS is lacking on 4 & 5 and perhaps on 3 (management capable). In terms of safety, I think their leverage is too high and the headwinds are well known.

To: E_K_S who wrote (60734)	4/23/2018 5:23:54 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78763

When I saw CLW's report come out, the first thing to strike me were again, increased costs. I believe they mentioned chemicals and pulp....They must not be charged for transportation(vbg)--every other company has mentioned increased transportation costs..Sounded like low end product margins are declining and at best premium was even. I'd be surprised if premium doesn't join low end going forward. We discussed pulp/recycled fiber prices increasing back when this stock was first mentioned here on the boards..they've only gotten more expensive throughout that entire time. TIS has just never floated my boat, guess that was a good thing. Tough business.