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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Russian Bear who wrote (13277)	1/13/1998 6:21:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

RB & Andy, I was running out the door for my first report and I'm heading out again. RB said LGND would decide next month on the LLY drug (which is when their 90 days expires). At this point, I would be EXREMELY surprised if they went with it. It looks more and more like they can turn a profit without it, and I think that they should stick with their core technology. I'll expand when I get back, but EPO is erythropoetin, AKA, AMGN's blockbuster Epogen. The SBH alliance is to discover small molecules which will mimic the injected hematopoetic growth factors. They have targeted erythropoetin and GCSF (Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factor) which does for granulocytes what epo does for red blood cells and Neupogen does for neutrophils (one of many white blood cell types).

To: Russian Bear who wrote (13277)	1/13/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

RB, I'm not sure what is holding LGND's price down. Andy had speculated taht it was the size of the KS and CTCL markets. LGND does plan on chraging a fair amount for these treatments, so although the target population will be smaller than many cancer types, the income will still be significant. Today's presentation indicated that Targretin was effect against some major killers. I expect MDs to use these compounds base on clinical trial results, before they are approved for the larger indication. Targretin has been safe so far, and these patients are dying. Targretin seems to be effective even against advanced patients who have failed prior therapies. I don't think that oncologists will be overly concerned about being sued for using Targretin. In fact they might be worried about the legal consequences of not trying the drug on termally ill patients. The market may be concerned about dilution (although the LLY shares would be locked up) or selling pressure may be coming from Farallon (or a combination of both). In any event, LGND is a steal at these prices, and buys at this level should be all smiles as NDAs get filed and more compounds enter the clinic (at the expense of LGND's partners).