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Biotech / Medical : Amgen Inc. (AMGN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F Beule who wrote (433)	1/15/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1906

Where we go from here: Clearly, 54 is a strong resistance level. I doubt we go above that level this year. Sentiment is negative and not improving, and it will take some important positive news to break above 54. If they can successfully lobby the government to change reimbursement policy, that might do it, but predicting what Washington will do is impossible, so I don't waste time trying. Regulatory decisions strongly effect all drug companies, but it's a random capricious effect. I don't see any clear support level. I think the best thing is to simply wait and let the market tell us. I would not go long until we've bounced off a support level at least three times, over a period of at least two months. I didn't short, because I thought the pennant had a bit further to go, before the abrupt drop-off. If we get to 53-55 again, on low volume, and stall, I will short. It's interesting that Chiron seems to be doing the same thing as Amgen. CHIR was in a 18 to about 22 trading range from 8/96 to 12/97. In that time, it rallied above 22 twice, the last time in Sept. 97, and slid back into the trading range. Then, in mid-Dec. 97, it broke below 18, and has gone as low as 16.5 recently. The flight to safety is taking investors out of stocks, especially out of speculative sectors like biotech and silicon hi-tech. Money is going into cash and bonds and "safe" industries with "safe" stocks. Amgen is a biotech, not a drug company. It gets classified with Chiron, not Merck.