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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Broken_Clock who wrote (7912)1/13/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Respond to of 95453
 
First, I want to thank everyone for all the information collecting efforts. That is one of the best benefits of putting up with you characters -- and Barbara's. Between all of us I doubt there is an iota of info about the sector that is not displaed here for all. Please keep up the good work.

The following is from a Jefferies Energy Group report they mail to professional and institutional investors -- not the general public. I have included below the part that pertains to the oil service sector. Written January 7. (Excuse typos and spacing...it was a scan.)

Oil Service Sector Outlook

We believe oil service stocks represent an excellentintermediate and long-term value despite declining investor
sentiment driven by weakening short-term commodity prices. Our analysis shows that the business cycle in oil
services still has a long way to run - potentially well into the next millennium. We believe exploration and
production spending decisions are based on multi-year views for commodity prices and are largely immune to
short-term price fluctuations.

The recent sell-off in oil service stocks closely mirrors the decline experienced in first quarter 1997, when natural
gas prices briefly declined to below $2.00/MMbtu. We believe that most of our stocks are trading well below
historical valuation ranges and that many of these stocks will show large gains from here once the market
perceives that commodity prices have bottomed. However, in the near-term, we would focus on companies with:

 High earnings visibility from growing backlogs, minimizing risk to 1998 and 1999 results.

 Specialty products or services in consolidated markets where capacity shortages are high, providing the
potential for substantial pricing leverage beyond our existing forecasts.

 Limited short-term commodity price sensitivity from longer planning horizons associated with these products
and services, particularly deepwater and international related products and services.

 Good international exposure, where the presence of independents is less, calming investor fears about short-
term spending swings.

 Valuations well below historical trading ranges.

 Strong management teams with demonstrated ability to increase shareholder value.

 Companies with strong balance sheets and large amounts of uncommitted free cash flow.

We find these characteristics in:
Friede Goldman (FGII-$22 3/8) 12 mo target - $50
Global Industries (GLBL-$13 3/4) $30
Varco International (VRC-$18) $36
Santa Fe International Corp. (SDC-$36) $57





To: Broken_Clock who wrote (7912)1/13/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Respond to of 95453
 
Following rcvd from CFO of MIND. I asked about why they used a secondary offering instead of bank debt to fund expansion. Here is his reply:

Mike,
the most we could get from the banks was approx $15million. not enough to
cover our immediate needs. we will definitely go the debt route with our next
needs. we have already begun discussions on this with several companies.

it looks as though the right decision was made with regards to pricing at
year-end. the stock has tumbled, not as a result of anything we have done.
when we started our discussions with the underwriters, the stock was trading
at $22. we were not unhappy with the secondary being priced at $19. keep in
mind, the stock was at $7 in march of 1997.

Bob



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (7912)1/13/1998 7:18:00 PM
From: Timelord  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, I thought you would all get a chuckle out of the momentum indicator on this chart:

207.95.154.130

I think they call this the R.I.P. pattern... <g>

Alex