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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yousef hashmi who wrote (26467)	1/13/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Yousef, if Kurlak did that, my sell-side B.S.-o-meter wouldn't just melt... ...we're talking potential nuclear explosion (it's fusion-powered <g>). Actually, I don't know. The guy is looking a little crispy on the MU downgrade to a L-T neutral. But then again if you assume there actually is a "sector-cycle" methodology behind his calls, he'll probably stand his ground. I've always thought his sector-cycle stuff was missing a few face cards anyway. Within every sector there will be winners and losers. Somewhere out there, someone is buying MU not because of some analyst call, but because they've come to the conclusion that there's been a significant shift in the industry's ability to keep expanding production capacity beyond on all needed levels. IMHO, the price change we're seeing is more a short-term rebound from the insane decreases we saw towards the end of the year, which calls me to question their duration. But anything that gets this industry into supply-demand parity sooner rather than later is a good thing (and granted, there is the demand argument to be made). So I don't think it's that crazy to rethink things. My concern would be the risk that somehow there's a zag back down after this rise (which is a possibility the Lehman analyst is highlighting) and that MU's going to give a little back until prices start rising due to less a case of short-term dynamics than the long-term shift. I just find top-down analysis of the chip sector to be an excuse for actually getting up to speed some of the changes we've seen over the past 3-4 years in terms of the fragmentation of both the products and their end markets and some of the changes in operations in terms of actually manufacturing the goods and managing the supply chain. Who knows? Good trading, Tom