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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pierre-X who wrote (2244)	1/13/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Off Topic PX, >>I'm going to interview some int'l economics professors and try to formulate a picture of what's going on in Asia and the probable scenarios there.<< Re: Ivory Tower Input-- I'll prepare a rubber room for you. <g> Here's an economist that occasionally makes sense. smartmoney.com irthrifty

To: Pierre-X who wrote (2244)	1/14/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: nonzeroa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

<<Overcapacity never self-corrects>> However, technological obsolesence may work to reduce capacity. I don't know how capital intensive aspects of the disk drive manufacturing process are, but I'll bet a lot of the thin film equipment won't be in use (or at least not as intensively) 18 months out. << Put writing? That's a game I don't play -- and I worked in derivatives valuation for four years. The spreads are just too wide and the payoff patterns don't favor small players.>> I limit myself to special situations. I wrote Iomega puts with implied volatilites of over 200 when it was downgraded by the Cabot market letter and was trading at less than 10x forward earnings! I've also done well writing puts on AMAT and SVGI at the bottom of the semi equipment cycle and a few other special situations like HFI after the beef contamination scare. To be fair, I gave back a lot of my winnings with ill timed sales of CYMI, WFR, SEG, QNTM, and WDC puts recently, but that was before I discovered the insight on this thread! <g>. I agree the spreads are ridiculous, but I generally use limit orders (which are way time consuming) and can sell at the offer or just inside. BTW, if you have any suggestions of how to statistically analyze my results to differentiate between luck and skill, I'm all ears.