Apparently, you and I have been on the same page about Tesla for a very long time. I've got nothing against electric cars becoming more economically viable in terms of market supply & demand, without repeated gov. subsidies. Better energy storage technology will be developed in the next decade or more and E Cars will be able to compete on their own merits.
This company, OTOH? A total boondoggle, run by a darling of the left. Will be a great short sale when the next bear market in the broad stock indices begins. After that? Wouldn't be surprised to see a 80-90% Tesla price decline before a long term bottom. IMHO, as a successful, retired (2012), career professional stock trader, TSLA will eventually prove to be one of the biggest pump n' dumps ever!
Til then, can only shake my head at the sad antics of this bi-polar CEO and the unfortunate investors & government officials he's conned into buying and subsidizing this "train wreck waiting to happen".
Iso
<Is The Taxpayer About To Rescue Elon Musk Again?
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/07/2018 - 12:56
It is no longer a secret that Elon Musk's car-making company is a cash-burning monster that now admittedly needs to raise more cash.
And while the bond market remains extremely skeptical of Musk's visions, his threats of a "short burn of the century" this weekend...
Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 4, 2018 Seems to have spooked a few weak shorts out of the stock (but not the bonds)...
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So the question everyone is asking is simple - is this the last desperate 'vinegar strokes' of the new millennium's 'Enron'? Or does Musk have yet another rabbit up his sleeve (mixing metaphors wildly)?
Today we may have got the answer.
As The Daily Caller's Jason Hopkins reports, California is widely expected to become the first state in the U.S. to require solar panel installations for nearly all new homes.
The California Energy Commission will vote Wednesday on whether to enact a sweeping new mandate that will artificially propagate the state’s solar energy sector. If passed, the proposed rule will require solar panels to be installed in all new homes, apartment buildings and condos up to three stories high, beginning on Jan. 1, 2020. Exceptions will be made for homes that are blocked by trees or taller buildings, or can’t fit a solar panel. The five-member commission is expected to pass the measure.
“California is about to take a quantum leap in energy standards,” Bob Raymer, technical director for the California Building Industry Association, stated in a local interview published Friday. “No other state in the nation mandates solar, and we are about to take that leap.”
The impending mandate will radically change the energy industry in The Golden State. Only 15 to 20 percent of new single-family homes in California currently use solar installations. A vast amount of new homeowners will soon be forced to invest in solar panels whether they like it or not — and at a steep price. As Jason Hopkins continues...
The mandate will raise the cost of building a new home by around $25,000 to $30,000. Supporters of the measure point to an estimated $50,000 to $60,000 savings on energy bills over 25 years to offset these initial costs. These savings, however, are largely possible through subsidized rates, where panel owners are compensated for the energy they put back into the grid at a retail rate, not the cheaper wholesale rate.
The vote Wednesday by the California Energy Commission is just the latest in what has been a bullish environmental agenda in the state.
Jerry Brown, the state’s outgoing Democratic governor, has pushed legislation that makes the state’s renewable portfolio standard reach 33 percent by 2020 and 50 percent by 2030. More notably, state leaders have waged war on the White House regarding vehicle emissions standards. The Trump administration is pushing to ease regulations on the car industry, but Brown has vowed to keep his own, stricter standards in place. Such a different emission standard between the federal government and California, the country’s most populated state, would wreak confusion on the car industry.
The move to mandate solar panels for every home could further complicate a growing dilemma. Utility companies are already struggling to operate in a state that is increasingly diversifying its energy portfolio, pushing more customers to turn away from investor-owned utilities and creating a more volatile market. Uncertain of how many customers they will have in the future, utilities are becoming more hesitant to sign long-term contracts with power generators.
Michael Picker, president of the California Public Utilities Commission, is sounding the alarm bell, warning that California might be at risk of a second energy crises. Customers could soon be subjected to skyrocketing electricity prices and rolling blackouts — unless the state leaders act accordingly. Picker’s office released a report Thursday explaining how they can properly reform the electricity market and avoid an energy shortage similar to the one California experienced in 2000 and 2001.
So, will Solar City get the contract to install non-Chinese, made-in-America solar panels on all new homes in California at the Government's behest and subsidized by the US taxpayer?
We shall see, but one thing is for certain, without the intervention of the US government and its benevolent taxpaying sheeple, Musk would be more 'no jobs' than 'steve jobs'.>
zerohedge.com
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Valuable perspective and supporting evidence for the above article from fact rich article 11 months ago:
<It's Confirmed: Without Government Subsidies, Tesla Sales Implode:
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/12/2017 - 05:05
According to the latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), sales of Electrically Chargeable Vehicles (which include plug-in hybrids) in Q1 of 2017 were brisk across much of Europe: they rose by 80% Y/Y in eco-friendly Sweden, 78% in Germany, just over 40% in Belgium and grew by roughly 30% across the European Union... but not in Denmark: here sales cratered by over 60% for one simple reason: the government phased out taxpayer subsidies.
As Bloomberg writes, and as Elon Musk knows all too well, the results confirm that "clean-energy vehicles aren’t attractive enough to compete without some form of taxpayer-backed subsidy."
The Denmark case study is emblematic of where the tech/cost curve for clean energy vehicles currently stands, and why for "green" pioneers the continued generosity of governments around the globe is of absolutely critical importance, and also why Trump's recent withdrawal from the Paris Climate Treaty is nothing short of a business model death threat.
To be sure, Denmark's infatuation with green cars is well-known: the country's bicycle-loving people bought 5,298 of them in 2015, more than double the amount sold that year in Italy, which has a population more than 10 times the size of Denmark's. However, those phenomenal sales figures had as much to do with price and convenience as with environmental concerns: electric car dealers were for a long time spared the jaw-dropping import tax of 180 percent that Denmark applies on vehicles fueled by a traditional combustion engine.
Then, in the fall of 2015, everything changed: that's when the government of Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen announced the progressive phasing out of tax breaks on electric cars, citing budget constraints and the desire to level the playing field. In retrospect the "leveling" effectively nuked the market: the chart below shows the total collapse in sales following the elimination of subsidies.
Nobody was hurt more than Tesla: the company, whose sales were skyrocketing at the time, lobbied against the move, with CEO Musk warning during a visit to Copenhagen that sales would be hit. It wasn't clear if the warning was targeting the government, the people of Denmark, or his own bank account and shareholders, but he was absolutely correct: in 2015 Tesla sold a total of 2,738 cars in Denmark. In 2016 the number dropped by 94% to just 176 units.
The new tax regime "completely killed the market," Laerke Flader, head of the Danish Electric Car Alliance, told Bloomberg.
The punchline: "price really matters." And, by extension, taxpayer subsidies.
What happened next is probably obvious. As Bloomberg explains, while the government’s original plans anticipated to phase out tax breaks from 2016 to 2020, when they would be treated in the same way as fossil fuel-powered cars, on April 18, having taken note of the drop in sales, the government decided to change the rules.
"It’s no secret electrical vehicle sales have been below what we expected a year and a half ago," Tax Minister Karsten Lauritzen said in a statement. "The agreed phase-in has turned out to be hard and that likely halted sales."
The new rules mean the transition to a post-subsidy era has been postponed until at least 5,000 new electric cars are sold over the 2016-2018 period. Tax breaks will in any case be progressively eliminated as of 2019, regardless of sales numbers. The plan envisages a 40 percent registration tax minus a 10,000 kroner ($1,500) deduction in 2019, with the tax rising to 65 percent in 2021, 90 percent in 2021 and 100 percent in 2022.
It was unclear if Musk lobbying was behind the parial U-turn, however any hopes for a prompt rebound in sales appear to have been chilled by the Danish government's decision which has "caused confusion, prompting many potential customers to either postpone or desist from their purchases." Meanwhile in generous next door neighbor, Sweden, sales of low or zero emission cars continue to boom thanks to a wide range of subsidies, including a five-year tax break and a 40,000 kronor ($4,600) purchase premium.
According to Flader of the Danish Electric Car Alliance, the Danish electric car industry "doesn't want to invest in a market that may not be there next year. They'd rather invest where conditions are better and predictable long-term." And that means lots and lots of guaranteed taxpayer subsidies. While Flader anticipates a rebound in sales as soon as dealerships are allowed to advertise tax-free prices again, this time the country's raging enthusiasm for all things "green" may be far more muted.
As for Tesla, and its all time high price, what the Danish case study showed just how much of that market cap, which on Friday surpassed BMW, is thanks to government generosity. Take the subsidies away, and sales crash by over 90%.
Should the rest of the world follow in Denmark's example, the same thing would happen to Tesla's market cap, which at last check amount to just over $800,000 per car sold.
zerohedge.com |
