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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14640)	1/13/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

A crosspost from MEMC thread I thought may be of interest to fellow AMATers: <<<<< Well, the dust has settled a little and I have more to report on the industry conference. Where it had been anticipated 7 300mm pilot fabs would be online by year's end, it now seems certain only 3 will make it. Commercial production on 300mm now seems to be slipping into 2000 or 2001. Growth in the equipment segment is now expected to lag and 98 will be flat to slightly higher. Lithography and automation are the two areas expected to buck that trend, as more emphasis is placed on yield improvements and smaller line rules. AMAT and ASMLF will benefit, as will PRIA and ASYT. A sleeper is the step and scan lead that UTEK has as others try to overcome numberous development problems with synchronizing the wafer stage and reticle movements. One major trend unabated is the consolidation in the industry. It was estimated that the top 7 equipment companies now command 70% of the market. The outlook for small and mid cap "me-too" companies is grim. Critical mass for success in this business is now seen as around $500MM annual sales. Mergers and aquisitions will create opportunities for the astute. Everyone carefully hedged their statements predicated on the outcome of the disaster in Asia. No one expected the picture to clear significantly before April and warned of extreme choppiness in the market as investors react to negative news like stuck pigs. It's a good time for traders, and not a bad time for investors who are careful about fundamentals. >>>>>>

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14640)	1/13/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: SMALL FRY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Now, that's bullish talk! Welcome back.<G> And as usual, you present a good, eloquent argument. And I tend to agree that we're not free from all the SEA hype yet, nor are we going flank speed ahead to new highs from here on. I do believe however that, this being a "disoriented" market at best, we can be better served by playing SOME of our cards short term... and let momentum be our ally. At this point the market is euphoric, to coin Mr. Greenspan, and everyone who's sitting on the sideline is waiting for a spike. Could this be IT? Indications are that some bigger units are testing the waters. Thus, we have enough here to carry us through earnings IMHO... then we'll see. If we're not there, we're real close... if this reverses in midair then I'll scrape some more powder to reload. Regards, SF PS: I like your disclaimer... ditto!

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14640)	1/13/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian...I think everyone has read enough of my posts!!! INTC came in with good numbers for the quarter....(they beat the low expectations) and they expect the next two quarters to be flat...not sure why if they expect 17% growth this year. Looks like INTC's cap spending is pretty much going to be flat this year compared to last year....not sure if that is good news for AMAT. When interest rates are moved up or down it takes several months for the effects to show up in the economy.....I think the asia stuff will start showing it's effects in a few months too. Maybe that's why INTC forecast flat quarters. With that said...I think we are in for a rally for awhile in tech stocks...so lets enjoy it. Maybe some thoughts should be given to hedging AMAT long positions as it starts to move up....just incase! dave

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14640)	1/13/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: roly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, Just as we are expecting a positive move from the market, Sadam showed up in the radar screen! Bulls can't just get a break. After INTC announced a good earning, CNN accordingly (from INTC) thread claims that the whisper number is 1.05. Just can't win. Overall, in my observation, the sentiment is changing. Bulls are getting some help from media. It's amazing how they put a positive spin for MOTs earning yesterday whereas if that was last Oct, the market would have killed the stock. I recall CPQ, AMAT blew their earning and got killed last Oct. Tomorrow will be a good day for AMAT. I believe we will close at 33. Happy investing. Roly