To: William Vernard who wrote (10709 ) 1/14/1998 4:11:00 PM From: Andrew Vance Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17305
*AV*-- I have a tendency to agree with eveything written in that post with the exception of the opinion that WFR will test new lows before breaking through 20. I think WFR will temporarily base in the 18-21 range until we see some of the new fabs and retrofit fabs crank up a bit. WFR is really positioned to take advantage of the Chinese market as it develops. Without getting on a soapbox, the Asian crisis does not factor in the possible explosion of technology that could be just around the corner in China. I do not mean to discount the mayhem in Asia but rather to mix in some potential upsides in that region. BTW-anyone keeping track of DRAM prices and the recent price rise in MU??? IF the industry really hinges on the world of DRAMs, SRAMS, Flash, and other memoory products, how long will it be before this overshadows the Asia Crisis. After all, some of the top memory producers are in the same Asian region. Also how many more days, weeks, or months need to go by with rising or stabilized (not falling) DRAM prices before we see this as a turn for the better??? As far as ADPT is concerned, I put my portfolio in slight jeopardy by loading up on this baby since I beleive this is a temporary over reaction to Asian issues. their CEO was quoted as saying the high end part of ADPT's business was going real well and it was just the low end stuff (low end PC stuff) that they took a charge against since these products were in the hands of distributors. On the other side of the coin, with the exception of Bear Sterns, a few second and third tier investment companies(analysts) have downgraded ADPT to a long term hold. Bear Sterns is the notable "Big Guy" joining in the downgrade. Seems to me these downgrades occurred well after the cows stampeded off the farm. I boggles my mind that a downgrade would come now since there is very little downside to the price and a great deal of upside. I am just waiting to verify the cash position of ADPT when the numbers come my way. Given a Market Cap of close to $2.3 billion, it seems that this company is severely undervalued if close to %600 million still remains in their piggybank. As I said, I want to verify and re-check all my numbers. But if it is indeed true, then ADPT was blasted because of its heavy involvement in the Pacific Rim for much of its IC manufacturing, assembly, component assembly, and sales in the past, present, and forseeable future. Andrew It's been awhile since someone asked for an opinion from me. Thanks for asking and I tried to keep the response under a million words<GGG>