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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (3768)1/13/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: Yousef  Respond to of 6843
 
Pravin,

Re: "After listening to the conference call, I am no longer long on AMD. This is what I heard ..."

Excellent analysis of the conference call, Pravin:

"* Yield problems still not solved.
* Q1 to be their most challenging quarter, due to transition to 0.25u.
* Capital expenditures in the next few quarters will deplete all cash reserves.
* Do not know if more than 1.5 million K6 chips will be produced in Q1.
* Do not know if volume and yields will ever be high enough to make a profit."

The only thing that I would add to this is the fact that AMD's .25um process
is not as aggressive on performance and so even if they do execute their
.25um plans ... Intel will still have a significant advantage!!

Make It So,
Yousef



To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (3768)1/13/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: Maxwell  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6843
 
<<After listening to the conference call, I am no longer long on AMD. This is what I heard:>>

Very wise decision. Of all my semiconductor experience I have never seen any company that takes longer than 9 months to solve their yield
problem. If they can't solve their .35um problem don't expect that the .25um be any easier. The .25um will be at least 2 folds harder to fabricate. AMD's problem boils down to execution. AMD FAB25 management needs to be replaced soon. Yield problem after 9 months of production is unexcusable. AMD will always have good and cheap products but to invest in them is another story.

Maxwell



To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (3768)1/14/1998 2:20:00 AM
From: greg nus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6843
 
Pravin, You checklist is AMD's checklist. But your conclusions regarding survival are not well founded. I don't disagree with you desision to sell that's your call and I respect your decision. I have confidence in the 0.25 transition. K-6 3D is so good Intel had to go out and buy Microchips and Technology to try to catch up. That move has Intel under scrutny buy the FTC for anti-competivive action.


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