Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (2258)	1/14/1998 2:06:00 AM
From: scott harrison	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Wanna meet a guru of the Disk Drive Industry. Go here. geocities.com Scott

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (2258)	1/14/1998 3:20:00 AM
From: Jonathan Bird	Respond to of 9256

Z, My comment would be that I think people(speaking of these threads in general) are trying to hard to find a link between the HDD industry problems, and asia, or the tech weakness in general. Of course everything is related to a degree, and strength in other places will give some strenght to the HDDs. But the HDDs have enough problems of their own that are independent and overwhelmingly unrelated to any weakness, or strength, elsewhere in the market. To illustrate, tomorrow, Im sure the HDDs will have a bit of a rally, as will all the techs, based on Intels earnings. But it should be obvious that Intels strength does not signal strength for the HDDs. Intels stronger then expected earnings are produced in the exact same Qtr as all the weaker earnings in the HDDs companys. And yet the HDDs will rally anyway. I might also add, that there is much talk of "excess inventory", and when that will be consumed so the sector can return to profitability. This assumes that all this is caused by some sort of temporary miscalcualtion on the part of all the US HDD players. Which is probably the case to some degree. But it ignores the posibility that the Asian HDDs might continue to pump drives out drives to maintain a drive surplus. And keep in mind, that what is excess inventory to the US companys could just mean high volume shipments to the Asian companys. Thus far, I have not seen any idications about how the Asian producers are getting along. For all I know they are intentionally causing this excess supply simply to inflict pain on the US HDDs and shake us out. And even if they aren't that doesn't mean they are loseing money like we are. I guess my main point is, even if all the other tech sectors were booming big time and if the Asian Contagian was contained, the HDDs in all lilely hood, would still be in the trouble they are in today. Peirre wrote that excelent piece on HDD cycles which explains this unrelatedness very well. I also wonder whether the magnetic disk technology is reaching that level of maturity and comoditization where Asian producers have historicaly been able to attain market superiority. Jon Bird