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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (33102)	1/14/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 58727

Yesterday Hank warned to be careful in front of the media hype on CPI. He pointed out that overall CPI days posted major Dow highs 92% of the time, major lows 70% of the time, and both 60% of the time. He had further data on why the day may be highly volatile. Referencing us lunatics, he noted that the Tuesdays after the rare Full Moon Monday during expiration week had a hit rate of 50/50 as to closing positive or negative. Overall, however, Tuesdays after FM Mondays had a hit rate of 70% negative. But, there had only been 2 prior cases of a Friday before the FM Monday dropping over 100 points and in each of these cases Tuesday closed up. The foregoing is just historical trivia of course. His overall DJIA warning was that if the DJIA advanced more than 55 points the historical data gave 100% odds of going higher with 90% odds of closing positive. His suggestion was to short the morning rally projecting the daily lows to be between 2:10 and 2:20 EST. He was wrong, of course, as the lows were at 11. The pattern of the day did match a 'blue' pattern but was offset so the turns came early. In exceptionally bullish or bearish markets turns have a tendancy to occur early (in pattern following techniques) and so they did. He gave the overall odds of success at 65% if you shorted the morning rally and bailed out by 2:15. Holding a short into the late afternoon he put odds of success at 50/50. He said that if you gambled on holding out longer to use a trailing stop as the 50% of the time it bounces it is sometimes a big bounce.