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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cfimx who wrote (4422)	1/14/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Twister, the Intel report has not changed my outlook one bit. I have long stated as part of my bearish outlook that I expect good PC demand (15%). Good unit growth with prices declining faster than Moores Law (costs), hence, declining margins and lower growth. Also, that capacity and die shrinks driving component prices down faster than costs would create a capital crunch at chip OEM's creating an air pocket for equipment orders in the second half of 1998. Finally, that current equipment valuations at 2x revenue + or minus don't reflect this deterioration in fundamentals in the second half of 98. I will justify this position based on the earnings reports that have been comming out. I currently don't have the time to elaborate. Good luck, Jay