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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (13087)	1/14/1998 10:30:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18056

Tommaso, my signal to buy around the second week in August 1982 was a string of about 5 days without a single new high on the NYSE, I told myself how more contrarian one can be? I just do not see an "extreme" overvaluation either on PE as these relate to long term interest rates nor on the dividend fron if we take into account buy backs (take this little INTC, in the last 12 months they bought back more $3 billion of stock, that is probably the equivalent of $4 B in taxable dividends). I think that with the long term bond at 5.75% fair valuation of 7500 is reasonable. We could get a 15% undervaluation ( to 6000 or my target of 6200) as well as we could get a 15% overvaluation to 9000 (my target for next spring), and none of these will be particularly at the extreme, IMHO. Zeev

To: Tommaso who wrote (13087)	1/14/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: Mark Nelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Hi there Tommaso, Zeev, Russ, Jack, distinguished members of the academy, I received a synopsis of a conference with Abbey J Cohen this AM re: Asia impact of US markets. She is quite the bull as you will see. exchange2000.com One of the primary premises of her analysis is "fiscal policy is sound as the government reduced the deficit (since 1990) from 6% of GDP to practically 0." Tekgk, maybe you can enlighten her. Really, where do they come up with this stuff? Mark