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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (1684)	1/14/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Anaxagoras	Respond to of 7041

Well, I suspect the list of questions you posed are mostly rhetorical in intent, however I'm afraid I'm not tuned into such subtleties of language. ;-) <<In light of the recent problems you think the insiders are still bullish?>> Well, that all depends on what you mean by the term "bullish". I suspect that as regards Vasomax they are still optimistic, although in spite of Podolski's CC spin I still believe it was unfortunate that PFE beat ZONA to the punch with filing the NDA for Viagra. However I also think they are quite content with their position vis-a-vis Schering. OTOH, they are obviously not "bullish" with respect to the stock and the Asensio attack. Fortunately, I believe we are at the end of that attack and I think he's (i.e. Manuel) probably emptied his ammo- now we'll start to see recycling of his bearish info (standard Asensio MO); the market seems to agree, so far. <<Is it possible that non-filers who have contacts could be selling.>> Absolutely possible, but improbable, IMO. They aren't too astute if, in spite of their assumed "contacts", they have come this far without knowing the bearish aspects, and only now decide to dump at the near term bottom- kinda dumb, if ya asks me. <<What other reason could there possible be for a company that is bleeding cash, on the way to pennys per share, one product company that doesn't work, no large institutional holders(that I can find), lawsuits from former employees, have for buying back shares?>> Simple- cuz they believe the product will be approved since they've had statistically (although clinically will be a different matter) significant Phase III results, and the approval record for companies that have made it this far is extremely high- I don't pretend to understand how the FDA does what it does, and so I'm relying on some basic figures, i.e. only about 1 in 4 drugs for which INDAs are submitted successfully complete Phase III, and of these, two thirds go to market- based on this the odds are good for Vasomax. As to the other comments you made, the cash bleed at this point is a non-issue, I don't believe the stock is going to go to pennies a share, and the company has a pipeline of products (it's not a one product jobie). <<The time delay for insider filing and the price action now leads me to believe that my scenerio is correct.>> ...which means we will be able to check this out in about 6 weeks. Happy investing, whatever you do. :-) Anaxagoras