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To: Big Bucks who wrote (14681)	1/14/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Re:Don't forget the fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash from the position decreases/close outs from Oct-Dec. I think they will perceive the techs as excellent bargains at these prices and invest BB, Agree 100%. Just differ on the time. Looking at today's action on INTC, I believe this corroborates my theory that it will be a little while before we move significantly higher. The fund managers are skittish and nothing coming out of SEA makes me believe that is about to change anytime soon. EPS estimates for INTC for FY98 are relatively flat and thus they may not be the engine of the next tech rally. There are several factors in our favor however. The SOX is near a multi-year low while most indexes aren't too far from their highs. Several prominent people have turned Bearish on techs; one of them(I forget his name- he was mentioned on CNBC this morning) sold his entire technology position and is sitting on cash. BTW, his top 5 holdings at the end of last year were all tech...now nada one is. Isn't the whole point ot buy low and sell high? Unless something new came out in the past few weeks<G> In addition, our sector, the equips has nearly the weakest relative strength of ANY sector. This usually precedes a rise with the converse also being true. We witnessed that when the equips were near the top in terms of RS last summer. To round it out, now is not the time to be a seller IMO, but to have the ba**s to step up to the plate. We did it in '96 and were rewarded...the same is about to happen again IMHO....just a matter of when. I think we have 2-3 mos. at minimum with little downside risk. regards, Brian

To: Big Bucks who wrote (14681)	1/14/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: Henry Eichorszt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

OT-KURLAK'S CLOUDY CRYSTAL BALL ÿ M ? Kurlak's Cloudy Crystal Ball ONE OF THE interesting sidelights coming out of Intel's stronger than expected quarter is how Merrill Lynch's Thomas Kurlak fared through it all. The semiconductor analyst, who is capable of moving the entire sector with a single morning comment, had predicted that Intel would earn 86 cents for its fourth quarter, the low on Wall Street. This bearish prediction was in line with his forecast last fall that the industry was due for an early 1998 downturn. Of course, Kurlak's earnings number was way off the mark: Intel reported a 98-cent-per-share fourth quarter. "He should say that he was wrong and recommend them," says Michael Murphy of the California Technology Stock Letter. Kurlak's scenario for Intel is that declining gross margins -- from 60% last year to 50% by the company's second quarter in 1998 -- will adversely affect the chip maker this year. But Murphy argues that PC demand is as strong as it was last year and Intel is shipping more products this year than last. "The company is now trading at a 3% discount to the S&P 500 P/E of 21, and we see the stock having a big reversal sometime soon," adds Murphy, who isn't concerned that the stock is down 1 9/16, or 2%, to 75 7/16 Wednesday morning. Murphy adds that investors need to be careful when listening to these analysts because their motivations may be suspect. "Their firms want them to make as many changes on these stocks to generate more trading volume for the firm," he says. For example, it's better for Kurlak to say, "Buy at 50, sell at 80 and buy at 65," then to tell investors to "buy at 50 and hold the stock." Since many of the chip makers are also down -- Micron (MU), down 1 9/16, or 4.9%, and Analog Devices (ADI) fell 1 5/16 or 5% -- this morning, Kurlak may yet be right on his 1998 outlook. But as this past Intel quarter clearly shows, sometimes it's better not to pound the table about something that you're not sure of. -- By Eric Moskowitz << SMI MARKET NEWS ARCHIVE Contact SMIÿÿÿÿ Helpÿÿÿÿ Searchÿÿÿÿ Get Quote

To: Big Bucks who wrote (14681)	1/14/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Buck,>Don't forget the fund managers are sitting on a lot of cash from the position decreases/close outs from Oct-Dec. I think they will perceive the techs as excellent bargains at these prices and invest soon, likely after options expiration on Fri.< Dorsey Wright 1/14/98 data is here based on supply and demand. The NYSE Bull % continued to drop from 55.80 last week to 54.00 this week. The OTC dropped from 47.00 to 39.90% and the 10WEEK (short term indicator) dropped from 48.29 to 42.77%. The interesting thing is the Bank sector got hit dropping from 86.90% to 70.40%. In August the Bank sector was at the 92% range. (Remember the tendency for a sector which breaks down below 70% is to go down to the 50% range or lower.) The Savings and Loan Sector dropped from 88.60 to 73.60%, Insurance dropped from 69.60 to 62.70%, finance from 52.30 to 43.10, real estate from 76.50 to 74.30%, wall street from 72.50 to 58.80%, computers from 63.30, semi (bear confirm) from 34.30 to 25.50%, software from 38.80 to 35.30%, electronics from 37.40 to 31.30, gas utilities down from 80.00 to 75.70%, oil down from 35.40 to 27.80%, oil services down from 30.20 to 13.40%, precious metals maintained at 11.60%, electric utilities up from 86.30 to 87.40%. IMHO, I am glad I am not in the money sensitive sectors like banks, etc. Will these sectors move into the semi sector, the oil or oil services sector? They will go some where. Are we seeing the Asia problems spreading to the banks? What is the probability that the bank money will move to the semiconductors? Any thoughts? We are at a good buying position in the semiconductor sector (below the 30 percentile range). Time to buy more? Naturally, this is my personal opined interpretation of the DW Charts. The reader takes the risk of quality upon themself. Just my opinion. Paul V