To: Keith Hankin who wrote (6777 ) 1/15/1998 6:37:00 PM From: Chung Yang Respond to of 64865
The new adherents realistically will be corporations that uses SUN mission critical servers, but have WinNT/PC has clients. The next segment I see is the Hollywood special effects or graphics professionals who traditionally used SGI machines. Finally, many IT managers who have supported SUN, but could not justify the purchase of those machines based on cost, now can buy SUN. Though the profit margin may be lower, the proliferation of inexpensive clients may ultimately boost higher priced server sale. The cheap clients in conjunction with powerful Servers can realize the kind of computing power not found in any type of PC configuration. To give you an idea on one segment of the industry. The EDA market (the software makers who produce programs that help microprocessor engineers design chips). Accounts for about 1 billion dollar of revenue annually. MCAD market, the mechanical engineer is even bigger piece of the pie that SUN has not captured. The hollywood special effects graphics professionals is yet another market that SUN is poised to take with their new line up. Again, when you think of the Darwin line .. don't think DOOM or Office 97. Think Oracle, Sybase, Silicon Emsemble, think mission critical .. think enterprise. There is where SUN has traditionally made its money. With the enterprise market growing by leaps and bounds, that is where SUN will keep on making more money. - Chung >>> OK, fine, so the Darwin line might stem the tide of losses of the already-existing customer base. But will they gain any new adherents with this approach? I suspect not many. Then the question becomes: how big is the existing customer-base and what percentage can be counted on for new purchases. If the expectations of investors is that this is a PC killer and that converts will be made of those who are not current Sun customers, I believe that you will be sadly disappointed. But, can anyone come up with a guesstimate of how this will add to revenue, in a realistic way? <<<<