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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew H who wrote (13313)	1/14/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: squetch	Respond to of 32384

>>On the negative side it is becomming clear that Neither Targretin nor panretin will be a major player in solid tumors<< Do you see any problem w/ this sentiment and the push to profitability and 500million in cancer sales?

To: Andrew H who wrote (13313)	1/14/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

Andy, I think that the type of activity is different for different diseases. The LGND initial data on lung cancer show stabilization of disease. In contrast, complete remisions were seen in lymphomas like CTCL and APL. I'm not sure about the activity in advanced solid tumors. The retinoids and rexinoids may have applications which fall short of irradication of the disease, but still have utility for treatment to stabilze the disease or ease pain but not "cure" the patients or put them in remission. Thus the compounds could have applications for many malignancies, but not produce remissions in solid tumors.

To: Andrew H who wrote (13313)	1/15/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 32384

<<How does this square with the information that Targretin is showing activity in lung, breast and prostate cancer?>> Just got back to SoCal a little while ago where it is NOT raining. So what if we don't have much culture. At least we are not wet. Henry's answer to your question is right on, and highlights why LGND is not well understood. Reich said in the breakout that it may be to much to ask of retiniods that they erradicate solid tumors. However they may be effective in combination with other compounds and individually show evidence of slowing or stopping athe progression of the disease. The problem with this in the solid tumor area is that the typical endpoint for a solid tumor trial is 50% tumor shrinkage not survival time. Thus approval of retiniods for solid tumors as a stand alone therapy will be difficult and risky but not impossible. However remember the strategy articulated by Robinson. Get the compunds approved for niche products where the data clearly satisfies the endpoints and then expand the label or use clinicals to stimulate off label use. Off label use can also be marketed in certain circumstances involving life threatening diseases where no other therapy is available. Lung cancer certainly fits this profile. The other interesting thing about Retiniods that I do not believe is well understood or appreciated by the street is their lack of toxicity. As an Oncology drug this makes them virtually unique. Even sucesessful Oncology drugs are incredibly toxic resulting in severe side effects and destruction of the immune system putting the patient at severe risk of death from collateral disease. Tamoxofilen for example a very toxic drug. Retiniods can be prescribe by oncologists with little risk of creating complications from the therapy. My view is that while Targretin and Panretin will be approved for small market niches they will show sales growth that far exceed the limitation of these markets. This is not a simple story for analysts. Those that stay with the stock long term and buy on dips will in my opinion be richly rewarded. V1