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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: current trend who wrote (843)	1/14/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 9980

CT, In my book Abbey Cohen is as good as they come. I think it was last year,she was Business Week's 'most influential person' on Wall Street. One thing for sure, she is better than that Kurlak guy, who seem to have no idea what he is talking about ? Others I like are: Joe Battapaglia of Gruntal & Co Ralf Alcampora (?) Prudential Notice any pattern here?, They all happend to be bulls at the moment,some more than the other. I don't know how accurate they are in their predictions but they seem to be more believable and normally backs up their stand pretty well.

To: current trend who wrote (843)	1/14/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: Mark Nelson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Current, What Abbey J Cohen uses to justify her position is, amoung other things, "...(US) fiscal policy is sound as the government reduced the deficit (since 1990) from 6% of GDP to practically 0." I have heard that this is a flawed assumption. My understanding is that Social Security funds have been merged with the general budget with no debit accounting. So, the deficit reduction has been, to some degree, manufactured. Have you also heard this? I think Zeev knows about this. I don't know enough about her past calls to say if she's worth the big bucks she gets. Mark

To: current trend who wrote (843)	1/15/1998 2:03:00 AM
From: current trend	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Chronology of the Asian financial crisis SINGAPORE, Jan 15 (Reuters) - President Suharto of Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director, Michel Camdessus, signed an agreement on Thursday to strengthen economic reforms. The following is a chronology of the financial crisis that has rocked Asia. 1997 Jan 23 - Leading South Korean steel maker Hanbo Steel Corp defaults on loans, the first of a string of major corporate failures in 1997. May 14-15 - Thailand's baht currency comes under attack by speculators who decided Thailand's slowing economy and political instability meant it was time to sell. Thailand and Singapore jointly intervene to defend the baht. The Philippines is affected. The central bank raises the overnight rate 1-3/4 percentage points to 13 percent and dumps dollars. June 19 - Amnuay Viravan, staunchly against devaluing the baht, resigns as Thai finance minister. Resignation has immediate impact in the Philippines, where the overnight deposit rate rises to 15 percent. June 27 - Thai central bank suspends operations of 16 cash-strapped finance companies and orders them to submit merger or consolidation plans. June 30 - Thai Prime Minister Chavalit Yonchaiyudh assures the nation in a televised address there will be no devaluation of the baht. July 2 - The Bank of Thailand announces a managed float of the baht and calls on the International Monetary Fund for ''technical assistance.'' The announcement effectively devalues the baht by about 15-20 percent. It ends at a record low of 28.80 to the dollar. In Manila, the central bank is forced to intervene heavily to defend the peso. July 8 - Malaysia's central Bank Negara has to intervene aggressively to defend the ringgit. In Indonesia, the rupiah starts to crumble. Jakarta widens its rupiah trading band to 12 from eight percent. July 14 - The IMF offers the Philippines almost $1.1 billion in financial support under fast-track regulations drawn up after the 1995 Mexican crisis. July 24 - Asian currency meltdown. The rupiah, baht, ringgit and peso all slump, as confidence in the region rapidly deteriorates. Around this time the Singapore dollar starts a gradual decline. August 11 - In Tokyo the IMF unveils a rescue package for Thailand including loans of $16 billion from the IMF and Asian nations. August 14 - Indonesia abolishes its system of a managed exchange rate. The rupiah plunges. August 20 - IMF approves a $3.9 billion credit for Thailand. Brunei later adds $500 million to the bailout package, bringing it to total of $17.2 billion. Sept 20 - Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad tells delegates to IMF/World Bank annual conference in Hong Kong that currency trading is immoral and should be stopped. Oct 6 - Rupiah hits a low of 3,845. Oct 6 - Russia and London Club sign agreement rescheduling roughly $33 billion of debts over 25 years with seven years grace, dated from December 1995. Oct 8 - Indonesia says it will ask the IMF for financial assistance. Oct 20-23 - The Hong Kong stock market suffers its heaviest drubbing ever, shedding nearly a quarter of its value in four days on uncertainty over the Hong Kong dollar. The Hang Seng index plunges 23.34 percent to 10,426.30 by Thursday's close, after 13,601.01 the previous Friday. Around this time the South Korean won also begins to slump rapidly in value. Oct 31 - Indonesia's IMF package is unveiled. It provides for as much as $40 billion in aid, although the front-line defence is $23 billion. Nov 5 - IMF approves a $10 billion loan for Indonesia as part of the massive international package. Dec 4 - IMF approves a $21 billion loan for South Korea. Two days later the Central Bank of Korea announces that it received $5.22 billion. 1998 Jan 6 - Indonesia unveils its 1998/99 budget projecting an increase of 32.1 percent growth in revenue and expenditure over the current budget and a four percent economic growth rate. But the rupiah loses half its value against the dollar over five-day period, breaking through the 10,000 to the dollar level, before a slight recovery. Freefall is triggered by perceptions that budget not tough enough to meet IMF-mandated austerity measures and by market talk that Jakarta might declare debt moratorium. Jan 8 - Representatives of the IMF and South Korea agree to a 90-day rollover of short-term debt. Jan 10 - Indonesia's President Suharto comes under increasing international pressure to adhere to IMF conditions. He calls the delay or review of 15 big infrastructure projects. Jan 11 - The IMF's first Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer arrives in Jakarta for talks about the IMF's programme and how to move ahead with it. Jan 14 - IMF Managing Director Camdessus heads for Jakarta. Stopping off in Singapore he says the IMF is asking Indonesia to sign a new letter of intent committing itself to implementing further IMF reforms. Jan 15 - Camdessus and President Suharto sign an agreement strengthening economic reforms. ------------------------------------------ What next? CT