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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chris G. who wrote (7769)1/14/1998 7:53:00 PM
From: David R. Evans  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 12039
 
Hello Chris,

Use the System Test as a guide, not the Bible. They will give you an idea BUT you must extend the results to something useful for you.

Look at the number of trades and the percentage of wins you get. Are those numbers fairly consistent over many charts? If so, could you tolerate them in real life?

If your system if consistently getting 5 out of 6 winners then you might assume that those numbers will carry over to most of your trades. Now when you system test look at the amount of time you are out of the trade and think about your money being in a different stock winning 5 out of 6 times you do it. Are those numbers OK for you?

Granted, you can not take these numbers to the bank BUT you can start building some common ground for further evaluations.

You also need to get an honest evaluation of YOURSELF! What type of person are YOU? Will you draw up a trading plan then STICK TO IT?? If not then you are wasting your time.

I sense you want to make quick trades with large profits. I have to tell you that's not realistic. The shorter the trade the harder the profit. By profit I mean CONSISTANT PROFIT! Consistent profit is the only profit that counts so when you build your system please look for something that works over many charts and not just your favorites.

I would plead with you (and all those out there new to TA ) to look at the longer term. Look at Dahl and DNS and 200 EMA's and 5 - 40 Xovers and see what they are doing. Understand the cycles a rising stock goes through and try to catch the longer term trend.

When you get use to trading the longer cycles then give the shorter term a shot BUT NOT UNTIL you've had a few winners under your belt.

The worst thing a person can do is jump into the market trying for the quick hits when they really do not know what they are doing. Stick to the tried and true indicators and you will do better. Make some money before you start experimenting. Know your time frame BEFORE you enter the trade.

I know I always talk about multiple exits and extending the trade from short term to longer term BUT please remember that I've been doing this for a long time. I have a good idea about ME and I trust my feelings. No new trader should trust his feelings. Feeling are the enemy!! New traders should only trust the charts!! Once again, NEW TRADERS SHOULD ONLY TRUST THE CHARTS

Do not be afraid to give back a little profit on the tail end of your trades. Of course Dahl will give some back BUT at lease you have something to give back. You will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER get in at the bottom and out at the top!! It's impossible so don't even try. The best thing you can hope for is to find a nice wave up and ride the heck out of it.. That's what TA is all about. The longer term systems try to get the entire ride and the shorter term systems try to pick out a smaller portion of the ride. In either case, it's the RIDE that we are looking for.

Read what we say on these Boards and store the knowledge in the back of your minds for future use. There will come a day when it will all make sense to you. When that day comes start trading shorter term. UNTIL THEN, please trade longer term with established systems like DNS or Dahl, or MACD (13-34-89), or 5 - 40 Xovers, or 200 EMA's.

I hope I didn't bust and bubbles out there BUT I'd rather do that then hear about people losing money.

Are you all still my friends?

Dave Evans