To: E_K_S who wrote (60989 ) 7/9/2018 8:10:25 PM From: Spekulatius 1 RecommendationRecommended By E_K_S
Respond to of 78751 E_K_S most states have already a VAT, it’s just not a federal tax and lower than in Europe. Tariffs are for certain goods from certain origin, while a VAT is applied to certain good regardless of origin, so the two are fundamentally different. The winners of the Trumponomics are the steel and Aluminum producers, at least it would be Al producers, if there were any left (90% of all the Sl is imported). Losers are fabricators of same goods - ARNC is a good example. Other losers are industrials that need to reconfigure their supply chain (all US car manufacturers) and that are also at the receiving end of retaliation (US car manufacturers in China most likely) and German car manufacturers. The economies most vulnerable to trade restrictions are Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Germany, while China is actually less vulnerable than thought, due to the large size of their home market. US is the least vulnerable. reuters.com I believe beneficiaries will be Airbus (probably wins market shares in Europe and China, access to cheaper Aluminum) and Chinese car manufacturers, as they will market shares in China against US companies (GM’s Buick is huge there and a likely loser). Other potential winners could be European defense companies (since Europe will accelerate their defense spent). It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Trump’s counter parties will most likely play for time and hope that the problem goes away in 2 years. I also think that companies will be reluctant to reconfigure their supply chain due to the same train of thought. I am thinking To buy some Great Wall motors stock 2333.HK, which is an chinese SUV producer with a depressed share price that have been putting up better numbers recently. It is run by a hard driven CEO. I expect it would see tailwinds if US car producers in China will get shafted by the government.