To: big john who wrote (7669 ) 1/14/1998 5:59:00 PM From: Matt Webster Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213173
Fancy Technology is Not the Problem or the Solution... People keep talking about how Apple should respond to the sub-$1000 question, soon to be the sub-$500 question. The answer is NOT to use the high speed memory bus of the SGI Octane. There is no longer any interest in CPU performance! The bottleneck is the modem/network. The above poster is correct that volume is the answer. That is the only way the PPC alliance can make any money selling CPU's in the long run. IBM/Motorola/Apple should think about freezing development at the 604e or G3 or whatever level and concentrate on driving the cost of the CPU down via die shrinkage, yield improvement, volume, outsourcing, etc. This is what is happening in the ultracompetitive DRAM market and is the only way IBM/Mot will compete with Intel on price. The rest of the problem lies in creating demand for Apple's specialty -- usability. In a previous post, I mentioned how Apple could do this via a thin-client approach, which would add value by doing things like make software available cheaply via leasing, create a new market for Apple server farms, add revenue from partnership with RBOC's and ISP's, push into the mainstream new capabilities like seamless home page authoring, etc. Usability combined with low cost is the key to the new Apple. The good news is that Apple could execute such a strategy and has a comparative advantage due to the MacOS - Rhapsody heritage. (It does not have a comparative advantage in manufacturing.) The bad news is that people both inside and outside of Apple are looking in the wrong places for a solution. Tomorrow, I expect a 3 point swing in the price of Apple. If you are holding puts, this will be an opportunity to unload them and buy them back at a lower price. If you have sold calls against stock, this is the chance to cover them. Use tomorrow to adjust your risk position, so that you preserve the upside to 25 and guard against downside to 13. It is easily enough done. Good luck everyone, Matt